DDM Analysis: 4150.SR

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$16.67 - $29.85	$22.20
Multi-Stage	$29.58 - $32.50	$31.01
Blended Fair Value	$26.61
Current Price	$35.30
Upside	-24.62%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-6.05%	-1.24%	0.66	0.45	0.66	1.45	0.89	0.90	0.88	0.87	1.19	0.67
YoY Growth	-	-	48.15%	-32.97%	-54.25%	63.94%	-1.74%	2.61%	0.49%	-26.44%	78.39%	-10.85%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.95%	1.90%	3.64%	5.25%	4.06%	6.68%	5.58%	5.89%	7.39%	4.34%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	241.46
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	101.64
(=) Cash Retained (M)	139.82

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	48.29	30.18	18.11
Cash Retained (M)	139.82	139.82	139.82
(-) Cash Required (M)	-48.29	-30.18	-18.11
(=) Excess Retained (M)	91.53	109.64	121.71
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	198.78	198.78	198.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.46	0.55	0.61
LTM Dividend per Share	0.51	0.51	0.51
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.46	0.55	0.61
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.97	1.06	1.12
WACC / Discount Rate	6.35%	6.35%	6.35%
Growth Rate	0.50%	1.50%	2.50%
Fair Value	$16.67	$22.20	$29.85
Upside / Downside	-52.78%	-37.10%	-15.45%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	241.46	245.07	248.74	252.46	256.23	260.06	267.86
Payout Ratio	42.09%	51.67%	61.26%	70.84%	80.42%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	101.64	126.64	152.37	178.83	206.06	234.06	247.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.35%	6.35%	6.35%
Growth Rate	0.50%	1.50%	2.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	117.90	119.07	120.25
Year 2 PV (M)	132.06	134.70	137.37
Year 3 PV (M)	144.31	148.66	153.09
Year 4 PV (M)	154.80	161.05	167.50
Year 5 PV (M)	163.70	172.01	180.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)	5,166.85	5,429.08	5,701.86
Equity Value (M)	5,879.62	6,164.58	6,460.72
Shares Outstanding (M)	198.78	198.78	198.78
Fair Value	$29.58	$31.01	$32.50
Upside / Downside	-16.21%	-12.14%	-7.92%

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Arriyadh Development Co. (4150.SR)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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