DDM Analysis: 3948.HK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$319.34 - $531.56	$498.15
Multi-Stage	$85.14 - $93.25	$89.12
Blended Fair Value	$293.63
Current Price	$15.93
Upside	1,743.28%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013
DPS	9.26%	3.01%	1.23	0.70	0.93	1.17	1.10	0.79	0.60	0.80	0.74	0.90
YoY Growth	-	-	75.56%	-25.11%	-20.03%	5.79%	39.98%	32.04%	-25.08%	7.92%	-17.86%	-1.50%
Dividend Yield	-	-	8.91%	9.43%	23.30%	22.59%	18.74%	10.26%	9.23%	20.61%	12.11%	11.09%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	8,691.28
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	2,113.62
(=) Cash Retained (M)	6,577.66

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	1,738.26	1,086.41	651.85
Cash Retained (M)	6,577.66	6,577.66	6,577.66
(-) Cash Required (M)	-1,738.26	-1,086.41	-651.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)	4,839.41	5,491.25	5,925.82
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	3,251.73	3,251.73	3,251.73
(=) Excess Retained per Share	1.49	1.69	1.82
LTM Dividend per Share	0.65	0.65	0.65
(+) Excess Retained per Share	1.49	1.69	1.82
(=) Adjusted Dividend	2.14	2.34	2.47
WACC / Discount Rate	6.21%	6.21%	6.21%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$319.34	$498.15	$531.56
Upside / Downside	1,904.64%	3,027.10%	3,236.83%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	8,691.28	9,256.22	9,857.87	10,498.63	11,181.04	11,907.81	12,265.04
Payout Ratio	24.32%	37.46%	50.59%	63.73%	76.86%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	2,113.62	3,466.92	4,987.23	6,690.52	8,594.17	10,717.03	11,345.17

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.21%	6.21%	6.21%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	3,233.67	3,264.33	3,294.98
Year 2 PV (M)	4,338.74	4,421.38	4,504.80
Year 3 PV (M)	5,428.95	5,584.80	5,743.60
Year 4 PV (M)	6,504.48	6,754.62	7,011.91
Year 5 PV (M)	7,565.45	7,930.87	8,310.27
PV of Terminal Value (M)	249,776.35	261,840.64	274,366.66
Equity Value (M)	276,847.64	289,796.62	303,232.21
Shares Outstanding (M)	3,251.73	3,251.73	3,251.73
Fair Value	$85.14	$89.12	$93.25
Upside / Downside	434.45%	459.45%	485.39%

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Inner Mongolia Yitai Coal Co., Ltd. (3948.HK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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