DDM Analysis: 3678.HK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$0.30 - $0.78	$0.46
Multi-Stage	$0.21 - $0.23	$0.22
Blended Fair Value	$0.34
Current Price	$4.68
Upside	-92.69%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-38.53%	-19.20%	0.01	0.03	0.01	0.05	0.01	0.07	0.07	0.05	0.05	0.03
YoY Growth	-	-	-80.92%	465.31%	-88.46%	426.76%	-86.62%	1.38%	33.33%	20.00%	33.38%	-37.50%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.27%	2.71%	0.36%	5.18%	1.32%	10.02%	6.62%	4.67%	2.97%	2.69%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	13.42
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	4.69
(=) Cash Retained (M)	8.73

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	2.68	1.68	1.01
Cash Retained (M)	8.73	8.73	8.73
(-) Cash Required (M)	-2.68	-1.68	-1.01
(=) Excess Retained (M)	6.04	7.05	7.72
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,004.99	1,004.99	1,004.99
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.01	0.01	0.01
LTM Dividend per Share	0.00	0.00	0.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.01	0.01	0.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.01	0.01	0.01
WACC / Discount Rate	9.20%	9.20%	9.20%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$0.30	$0.46	$0.78
Upside / Downside	-93.49%	-90.14%	-83.29%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	13.42	14.29	15.22	16.21	17.26	18.39	18.94
Payout Ratio	34.97%	45.98%	56.98%	67.99%	78.99%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	4.69	6.57	8.67	11.02	13.64	16.55	17.52

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.20%	9.20%	9.20%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	5.96	6.02	6.07
Year 2 PV (M)	7.14	7.27	7.41
Year 3 PV (M)	8.23	8.46	8.71
Year 4 PV (M)	9.24	9.59	9.96
Year 5 PV (M)	10.17	10.66	11.17
PV of Terminal Value (M)	173.66	182.05	190.75
Equity Value (M)	214.39	224.05	234.07
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,004.99	1,004.99	1,004.99
Fair Value	$0.21	$0.22	$0.23
Upside / Downside	-95.44%	-95.24%	-95.02%

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Holly Futures Co., Ltd. (3678.HK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener