Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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United Alloy-Tech Company (3162.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Metal FabricationSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$29.01 - $49.09$37.78
Multi-Stage$110.34 - $121.87$115.99
Blended Fair Value$76.88
Current Price$53.40
Upside43.98%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)318.43
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)39.11
(=) Cash Retained (M)279.32
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)63.6939.8023.88
Cash Retained (M)279.32279.32279.32
(-) Cash Required (M)-63.69-39.80-23.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)215.63239.52255.44
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)130.23130.23130.23
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.661.841.96
LTM Dividend per Share0.300.300.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.661.841.96
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.962.142.26
WACC / Discount Rate4.61%4.61%4.61%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$29.01$37.78$49.09
Upside / Downside-45.67%-29.26%-8.07%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)318.43315.25312.10308.98305.89302.83311.91
Payout Ratio12.28%27.83%43.37%58.91%74.46%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)39.1187.72135.36182.03227.75272.54288.52

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.61%4.61%4.61%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)83.0183.8684.71
Year 2 PV (M)121.21123.70126.21
Year 3 PV (M)154.25159.02163.89
Year 4 PV (M)182.63190.20198.00
Year 5 PV (M)206.82217.58228.80
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,621.6014,330.9115,069.46
Equity Value (M)14,369.5215,105.2715,871.07
Shares Outstanding (M)130.23130.23130.23
Fair Value$110.34$115.99$121.87
Upside / Downside106.63%117.21%128.23%

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