DDM Analysis: 301596.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$280.12 - $330.50	$309.51
Multi-Stage	$178.12 - $196.84	$187.29
Blended Fair Value	$248.40
Current Price	$89.28
Upside	178.23%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019
DPS	-19.26%	0.00%	0.05	0.07	0.61	0.16	0.16	0.16	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	-21.44%	-88.76%	289.55%	-5.76%	5.87%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.06%	0.14%	1.22%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	106.78
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	32.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)	73.90

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	21.36	13.35	8.01
Cash Retained (M)	73.90	73.90	73.90
(-) Cash Required (M)	-21.36	-13.35	-8.01
(=) Excess Retained (M)	52.54	60.55	65.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	59.77	59.77	59.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.88	1.01	1.10
LTM Dividend per Share	0.55	0.55	0.55
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.88	1.01	1.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.43	1.56	1.65
WACC / Discount Rate	-2.22%	-2.22%	-2.22%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$280.12	$309.51	$330.50
Upside / Downside	213.76%	246.67%	270.18%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	106.78	105.71	104.65	103.61	102.57	101.55	104.59
Payout Ratio	30.79%	42.64%	54.48%	66.32%	78.16%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	32.88	45.07	57.01	68.71	80.17	91.39	96.75

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	-2.22%	-2.22%	-2.22%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	45.63	46.09	46.56
Year 2 PV (M)	58.43	59.63	60.84
Year 3 PV (M)	71.30	73.50	75.75
Year 4 PV (M)	84.22	87.71	91.31
Year 5 PV (M)	97.20	102.26	107.53
PV of Terminal Value (M)	10,289.57	10,825.37	11,383.27
Equity Value (M)	10,646.35	11,194.57	11,765.26
Shares Outstanding (M)	59.77	59.77	59.77
Fair Value	$178.12	$187.29	$196.84
Upside / Downside	99.51%	109.78%	120.48%

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Reach Machinery Co Ltd (301596.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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