DDM Analysis: 301209.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$6.76 - $10.54	$8.50
Multi-Stage	$8.14 - $8.90	$8.51
Blended Fair Value	$8.51
Current Price	$116.95
Upside	-92.73%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018
DPS	53.53%	0.00%	0.18	0.16	0.00	0.00	0.40	0.02	0.07	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	11.11%	0.00%	0.00%	-100.00%	1,787.73%	-71.20%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.70%	1.13%	0.00%	0.00%	1.44%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	59.76
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	22.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)	37.36

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	11.95	7.47	4.48
Cash Retained (M)	37.36	37.36	37.36
(-) Cash Required (M)	-11.95	-7.47	-4.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)	25.41	29.89	32.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	87.99	87.99	87.99
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.29	0.34	0.37
LTM Dividend per Share	0.25	0.25	0.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.29	0.34	0.37
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.54	0.59	0.63
WACC / Discount Rate	9.96%	9.96%	9.96%
Growth Rate	1.77%	2.77%	3.77%
Fair Value	$6.76	$8.50	$10.54
Upside / Downside	-94.22%	-92.73%	-90.99%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	59.76	61.42	63.13	64.88	66.68	68.53	70.58
Payout Ratio	37.48%	47.98%	58.49%	68.99%	79.50%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	22.40	29.47	36.92	44.76	53.01	61.67	65.29

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.96%	9.96%	9.96%
Growth Rate	1.77%	2.77%	3.77%
Year 1 PV (M)	26.54	26.80	27.06
Year 2 PV (M)	29.94	30.54	31.13
Year 3 PV (M)	32.69	33.67	34.66
Year 4 PV (M)	34.87	36.26	37.69
Year 5 PV (M)	36.53	38.36	40.27
PV of Terminal Value (M)	555.67	583.51	612.46
Equity Value (M)	716.25	749.14	783.27
Shares Outstanding (M)	87.99	87.99	87.99
Fair Value	$8.14	$8.51	$8.90
Upside / Downside	-93.04%	-92.72%	-92.39%

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Longkou Union Chemical Co., Ltd. (301209.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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