Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Jiangsu Haili Wind Power Equipment Technology Co., Ltd. (301155.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$29.34 - $69.69$43.32
Multi-Stage$119.95 - $132.57$126.13
Blended Fair Value$84.73
Current Price$95.52
Upside-11.30%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS3.51%0.00%0.100.100.890.100.100.080.060.040.000.00
YoY Growth---0.11%-88.89%781.65%4.10%16.63%34.57%45.65%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.16%0.20%1.05%0.11%0.06%0.05%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)325.96
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)39.39
(=) Cash Retained (M)286.57
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)65.1940.7524.45
Cash Retained (M)286.57286.57286.57
(-) Cash Required (M)-65.19-40.75-24.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)221.38245.83262.12
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)219.20219.20219.20
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.011.121.20
LTM Dividend per Share0.180.180.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.011.121.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.191.301.38
WACC / Discount Rate1.97%1.97%1.97%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$29.34$43.32$69.69
Upside / Downside-69.29%-54.65%-27.04%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)325.96322.70319.47316.28313.12309.99319.28
Payout Ratio12.08%27.67%43.25%58.83%74.42%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)39.3989.28138.17186.08233.01278.99295.34

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate1.97%1.97%1.97%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)86.6787.5588.44
Year 2 PV (M)130.21132.88135.58
Year 3 PV (M)170.22175.48180.85
Year 4 PV (M)206.91215.49224.33
Year 5 PV (M)240.49253.01266.05
PV of Terminal Value (M)25,458.6226,784.3128,164.66
Equity Value (M)26,293.1227,648.7329,059.91
Shares Outstanding (M)219.20219.20219.20
Fair Value$119.95$126.13$132.57
Upside / Downside25.57%32.05%38.79%

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