Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Zhejiang Zhaolong Interconnect Technology Co., Limited (300913.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$16.13 - $42.28$24.58
Multi-Stage$13.68 - $14.99$14.32
Blended Fair Value$19.45
Current Price$56.20
Upside-65.39%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS9.34%0.00%0.110.070.060.050.020.070.100.530.010.00
YoY Growth--53.27%26.92%4.43%134.93%-67.25%-31.14%-80.93%4,160.21%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.27%0.22%0.35%0.53%0.21%0.42%0.60%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)201.38
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)31.15
(=) Cash Retained (M)170.23
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)40.2825.1715.10
Cash Retained (M)170.23170.23170.23
(-) Cash Required (M)-40.28-25.17-15.10
(=) Excess Retained (M)129.96145.06155.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)286.16286.16286.16
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.450.510.54
LTM Dividend per Share0.110.110.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.450.510.54
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.560.620.65
WACC / Discount Rate7.79%7.79%7.79%
Growth Rate4.15%5.15%6.15%
Fair Value$16.13$24.58$42.28
Upside / Downside-71.29%-56.26%-24.76%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)201.38211.75222.66234.13246.20258.88266.65
Payout Ratio15.47%30.37%45.28%60.19%75.09%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)31.1564.32100.82140.92184.88232.99246.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.79%7.79%7.79%
Growth Rate4.15%5.15%6.15%
Year 1 PV (M)59.1059.6760.24
Year 2 PV (M)85.1486.7888.44
Year 3 PV (M)109.35112.53115.77
Year 4 PV (M)131.84136.97142.26
Year 5 PV (M)152.68160.15167.91
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,377.223,542.503,714.18
Equity Value (M)3,915.344,098.614,288.80
Shares Outstanding (M)286.16286.16286.16
Fair Value$13.68$14.32$14.99
Upside / Downside-75.65%-74.51%-73.33%

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