Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Xi'an Triangle Defense Co.,Ltd (300775.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Aerospace & DefenseSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$24.55 - $73.47$38.89
Multi-Stage$16.00 - $17.50$16.73
Blended Fair Value$27.81
Current Price$24.77
Upside12.29%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS21.39%17.29%0.230.120.090.070.090.090.000.000.010.03
YoY Growth--90.86%35.09%21.82%-17.00%1.10%0.00%-100.00%-93.30%-80.38%-40.38%
Dividend Yield--1.00%0.50%0.26%0.18%0.32%0.31%0.00%0.00%0.06%0.33%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)532.62
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)49.66
(=) Cash Retained (M)482.96
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)106.5266.5839.95
Cash Retained (M)482.96482.96482.96
(-) Cash Required (M)-106.52-66.58-39.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)376.43416.38443.01
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)555.21555.21555.21
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.680.750.80
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.680.750.80
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.770.840.89
WACC / Discount Rate8.80%8.80%8.80%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$24.55$38.89$73.47
Upside / Downside-0.90%57.02%196.60%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)532.62567.24604.11643.38685.20729.73751.63
Payout Ratio9.32%25.46%41.59%57.73%73.86%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)49.66144.42251.28371.42506.12656.76695.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.80%8.80%8.80%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)131.49132.74133.98
Year 2 PV (M)208.31212.28216.28
Year 3 PV (M)280.35288.40296.60
Year 4 PV (M)347.84361.21374.97
Year 5 PV (M)410.97430.82451.43
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,502.997,865.398,241.66
Equity Value (M)8,881.959,290.849,714.93
Shares Outstanding (M)555.21555.21555.21
Fair Value$16.00$16.73$17.50
Upside / Downside-35.42%-32.44%-29.36%

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