DDM Analysis: 300696.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$2.54 - $5.49	$3.63
Multi-Stage	$1.80 - $1.97	$1.88
Blended Fair Value	$2.76
Current Price	$25.82
Upside	-89.31%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	6.57%	11.44%	0.10	0.19	0.16	0.07	0.08	0.07	0.07	0.05	0.05	0.03
YoY Growth	-	-	-49.40%	19.69%	129.06%	-10.02%	10.13%	5.37%	32.13%	3.65%	50.00%	-0.74%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.62%	1.30%	0.61%	0.17%	0.28%	0.43%	0.62%	0.27%	0.61%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	40.45
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	0.19
(=) Cash Retained (M)	40.26

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	8.09	5.06	3.03
Cash Retained (M)	40.26	40.26	40.26
(-) Cash Required (M)	-8.09	-5.06	-3.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)	32.17	35.21	37.23
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	305.29	305.29	305.29
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.11	0.12	0.12
LTM Dividend per Share	0.00	0.00	0.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.11	0.12	0.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.11	0.12	0.12
WACC / Discount Rate	9.90%	9.90%	9.90%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$2.54	$3.63	$5.49
Upside / Downside	-90.15%	-85.93%	-78.72%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	40.45	43.08	45.88	48.86	52.04	55.42	57.08
Payout Ratio	0.46%	18.37%	36.28%	54.18%	72.09%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	0.19	7.91	16.64	26.47	37.51	49.88	52.80

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.90%	9.90%	9.90%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	7.13	7.20	7.27
Year 2 PV (M)	13.52	13.78	14.04
Year 3 PV (M)	19.39	19.95	20.51
Year 4 PV (M)	24.77	25.72	26.70
Year 5 PV (M)	29.68	31.11	32.60
PV of Terminal Value (M)	455.49	477.49	500.34
Equity Value (M)	549.98	575.25	601.46
Shares Outstanding (M)	305.29	305.29	305.29
Fair Value	$1.80	$1.88	$1.97
Upside / Downside	-93.02%	-92.70%	-92.37%

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Chengdu ALD Aviation Manufacturing Corporation (300696.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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