DDM Analysis: 300644.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$25.64 - $60.35	$37.73
Multi-Stage	$17.78 - $19.44	$18.59
Blended Fair Value	$28.16
Current Price	$35.62
Upside	-20.93%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	31.33%	7.94%	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.18	0.12	0.09	0.18	0.32	0.26	0.17
YoY Growth	-	-	131.91%	-25.59%	13.23%	53.16%	30.52%	-50.00%	-44.22%	24.18%	49.80%	5.95%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.50%	0.87%	1.19%	1.10%	0.62%	0.49%	0.99%	1.17%	1.71%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	128.99
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	6.69
(=) Cash Retained (M)	122.31

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	25.80	16.12	9.67
Cash Retained (M)	122.31	122.31	122.31
(-) Cash Required (M)	-25.80	-16.12	-9.67
(=) Excess Retained (M)	96.51	106.18	112.63
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	106.01	106.01	106.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.91	1.00	1.06
LTM Dividend per Share	0.06	0.06	0.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.91	1.00	1.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.97	1.06	1.13
WACC / Discount Rate	9.51%	9.51%	9.51%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$25.64	$37.73	$60.35
Upside / Downside	-28.01%	5.93%	69.41%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	128.99	137.38	146.31	155.82	165.94	176.73	182.03
Payout Ratio	5.18%	22.15%	39.11%	56.07%	73.04%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	6.69	30.42	57.22	87.37	121.20	159.06	168.38

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.51%	9.51%	9.51%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	27.52	27.78	28.04
Year 2 PV (M)	46.83	47.72	48.62
Year 3 PV (M)	64.68	66.54	68.43
Year 4 PV (M)	81.17	84.29	87.50
Year 5 PV (M)	96.36	101.01	105.85
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,568.13	1,643.87	1,722.51
Equity Value (M)	1,884.69	1,971.21	2,060.95
Shares Outstanding (M)	106.01	106.01	106.01
Fair Value	$17.78	$18.59	$19.44
Upside / Downside	-50.09%	-47.80%	-45.42%

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Nanjing Julong Science&Technology Co.,LTD (300644.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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