DDM Analysis: 300620.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$9.58 - $20.58	$13.66
Multi-Stage	$7.05 - $7.69	$7.37
Blended Fair Value	$10.51
Current Price	$118.80
Upside	-91.15%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	11.26%	0.54%	0.12	0.13	0.13	0.09	0.07	0.07	0.07	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	-6.14%	-0.01%	51.21%	20.12%	0.01%	2.64%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	-100.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.26%	0.26%	0.42%	0.37%	0.47%	0.47%	0.33%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	126.48
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	34.58
(=) Cash Retained (M)	91.90

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	25.30	15.81	9.49
Cash Retained (M)	91.90	91.90	91.90
(-) Cash Required (M)	-25.30	-15.81	-9.49
(=) Excess Retained (M)	66.61	76.09	82.42
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	251.61	251.61	251.61
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.26	0.30	0.33
LTM Dividend per Share	0.14	0.14	0.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.26	0.30	0.33
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.40	0.44	0.46
WACC / Discount Rate	9.93%	9.93%	9.93%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$9.58	$13.66	$20.58
Upside / Downside	-91.94%	-88.50%	-82.68%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	126.48	134.70	143.46	152.79	162.72	173.29	178.49
Payout Ratio	27.34%	39.87%	52.40%	64.94%	77.47%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	34.58	53.71	75.18	99.21	126.05	155.96	165.10

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.93%	9.93%	9.93%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	48.40	48.86	49.32
Year 2 PV (M)	61.05	62.21	63.39
Year 3 PV (M)	72.60	74.68	76.81
Year 4 PV (M)	83.12	86.32	89.61
Year 5 PV (M)	92.68	97.15	101.80
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,415.82	1,484.21	1,555.21
Equity Value (M)	1,773.67	1,853.43	1,936.12
Shares Outstanding (M)	251.61	251.61	251.61
Fair Value	$7.05	$7.37	$7.69
Upside / Downside	-94.07%	-93.80%	-93.52%

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Advanced Fiber Resources (Zhuhai), Ltd. (300620.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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