DDM Analysis: 300615.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$8.95 - $13.38	$12.53
Multi-Stage	$6.96 - $7.68	$7.31
Blended Fair Value	$9.92
Current Price	$13.79
Upside	-28.07%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	21.49%	-9.44%	0.10	0.10	0.06	0.05	0.05	0.04	0.04	0.21	0.14	0.22
YoY Growth	-	-	-0.94%	74.71%	17.06%	0.12%	30.51%	-7.97%	-80.00%	49.96%	-36.38%	-20.19%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.83%	0.80%	0.42%	0.45%	0.49%	0.23%	0.25%	1.80%	0.62%	2.47%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	13.81
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	11.68
(=) Cash Retained (M)	2.13

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	2.76	1.73	1.04
Cash Retained (M)	2.13	2.13	2.13
(-) Cash Required (M)	-2.76	-1.73	-1.04
(=) Excess Retained (M)	-0.64	0.40	1.09
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	191.71	191.71	191.71
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.00	0.00	0.01
LTM Dividend per Share	0.06	0.06	0.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.00	0.00	0.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.06	0.06	0.07
WACC / Discount Rate	-0.97%	-0.97%	-0.97%
Growth Rate	-1.60%	-0.60%	0.40%
Fair Value	$8.95	$12.53	$13.38
Upside / Downside	-35.13%	-9.14%	-2.98%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	13.81	13.73	13.64	13.56	13.48	13.40	13.80
Payout Ratio	84.60%	85.68%	86.76%	87.84%	88.92%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	11.68	11.76	11.84	11.91	11.99	12.06	12.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	-0.97%	-0.97%	-0.97%
Growth Rate	-1.60%	-0.60%	0.40%
Year 1 PV (M)	11.76	11.88	11.99
Year 2 PV (M)	11.83	12.07	12.31
Year 3 PV (M)	11.90	12.26	12.64
Year 4 PV (M)	11.97	12.46	12.97
Year 5 PV (M)	12.04	12.66	13.31
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,274.06	1,340.13	1,408.91
Equity Value (M)	1,333.55	1,401.46	1,472.14
Shares Outstanding (M)	191.71	191.71	191.71
Fair Value	$6.96	$7.31	$7.68
Upside / Downside	-49.56%	-46.99%	-44.31%

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XDC Industries (Shenzhen) Limited (300615.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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