Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Allwinnertech Technology Co.,Ltd. (300458.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.29 - $56.98$20.21
Multi-Stage$8.85 - $9.68$9.26
Blended Fair Value$14.73
Current Price$51.82
Upside-71.57%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.05%1.65%0.120.120.210.160.120.120.010.060.040.03
YoY Growth--0.68%-42.68%29.25%33.74%0.00%1,097.14%-83.43%56.21%33.33%-71.43%
Dividend Yield--0.29%0.77%0.98%0.73%0.86%1.07%0.10%0.60%0.27%0.17%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)294.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)163.79
(=) Cash Retained (M)130.41
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)58.8436.7722.06
Cash Retained (M)130.41130.41130.41
(-) Cash Required (M)-58.84-36.77-22.06
(=) Excess Retained (M)71.5793.64108.35
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)833.64833.64833.64
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.110.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.110.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.280.310.33
WACC / Discount Rate6.91%6.91%6.91%
Growth Rate4.30%5.30%6.30%
Fair Value$11.29$20.21$56.98
Upside / Downside-78.22%-61.00%9.95%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)294.20309.79326.21343.50361.70380.87392.30
Payout Ratio55.67%62.54%69.40%76.27%83.13%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)163.79193.74226.40261.98300.70342.79362.88

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.91%6.91%6.91%
Growth Rate4.30%5.30%6.30%
Year 1 PV (M)179.50181.22182.94
Year 2 PV (M)194.34198.08201.87
Year 3 PV (M)208.35214.40220.57
Year 4 PV (M)221.57230.19239.06
Year 5 PV (M)234.01245.44257.32
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,337.346,647.036,968.70
Equity Value (M)7,375.117,716.368,070.46
Shares Outstanding (M)833.64833.64833.64
Fair Value$8.85$9.26$9.68
Upside / Downside-82.93%-82.14%-81.32%

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