Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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XXF Group Holdings Ltd (2473.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Credit ServicesSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.56 - $0.80$0.68
Multi-Stage$0.85 - $0.94$0.90
Blended Fair Value$0.79
Current Price$5.70
Upside-86.20%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.010.220.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%-100.00%-97.28%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.07%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)86.32
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1.68
(=) Cash Retained (M)84.64
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)17.2610.796.47
Cash Retained (M)84.6484.6484.64
(-) Cash Required (M)-17.26-10.79-6.47
(=) Excess Retained (M)67.3873.8578.17
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,070.681,070.681,070.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.070.07
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.070.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.060.070.07
WACC / Discount Rate9.32%9.32%9.32%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$0.56$0.68$0.80
Upside / Downside-90.20%-88.12%-85.95%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)86.3285.4684.6083.7682.9282.0984.55
Payout Ratio1.95%19.56%37.17%54.78%72.39%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1.6816.7231.4545.8860.0373.8878.21

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.32%9.32%9.32%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)15.1415.2915.45
Year 2 PV (M)25.7926.3226.85
Year 3 PV (M)34.0735.1236.20
Year 4 PV (M)40.3642.0443.76
Year 5 PV (M)44.9947.3349.77
PV of Terminal Value (M)754.13793.40834.29
Equity Value (M)914.48959.501,006.31
Shares Outstanding (M)1,070.681,070.681,070.68
Fair Value$0.85$0.90$0.94
Upside / Downside-85.02%-84.28%-83.51%

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