DDM Analysis: 1836.HK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$5.33 - $9.94	$7.22
Multi-Stage	$8.81 - $9.66	$9.23
Blended Fair Value	$8.22
Current Price	$1.85
Upside	344.35%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	8.85%	3.06%	0.16	0.11	0.12	0.03	0.06	0.10	0.07	0.09	0.11	0.11
YoY Growth	-	-	49.40%	-11.15%	363.03%	-53.60%	-46.41%	41.51%	-14.62%	-18.06%	-0.17%	-10.48%
Dividend Yield	-	-	7.61%	9.07%	12.80%	2.15%	4.83%	6.54%	6.21%	5.73%	6.56%	4.25%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	295.72
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	230.66
(=) Cash Retained (M)	65.06

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	59.14	36.96	22.18
Cash Retained (M)	65.06	65.06	65.06
(-) Cash Required (M)	-59.14	-36.96	-22.18
(=) Excess Retained (M)	5.92	28.10	42.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	823.18	823.18	823.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.01	0.03	0.05
LTM Dividend per Share	0.28	0.28	0.28
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.01	0.03	0.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.29	0.31	0.33
WACC / Discount Rate	6.51%	6.51%	6.51%
Growth Rate	1.06%	2.06%	3.06%
Fair Value	$5.33	$7.22	$9.94
Upside / Downside	188.29%	290.06%	437.22%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	295.72	301.82	308.05	314.41	320.90	327.52	337.35
Payout Ratio	78.00%	80.40%	82.80%	85.20%	87.60%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	230.66	242.66	255.07	267.88	281.11	294.77	312.05

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.51%	6.51%	6.51%
Growth Rate	1.06%	2.06%	3.06%
Year 1 PV (M)	225.60	227.83	230.06
Year 2 PV (M)	220.46	224.84	229.27
Year 3 PV (M)	215.25	221.70	228.28
Year 4 PV (M)	209.99	218.43	227.12
Year 5 PV (M)	204.72	215.05	225.79
PV of Terminal Value (M)	6,174.45	6,486.03	6,810.06
Equity Value (M)	7,250.47	7,593.88	7,950.58
Shares Outstanding (M)	823.18	823.18	823.18
Fair Value	$8.81	$9.23	$9.66
Upside / Downside	376.10%	398.65%	422.07%

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Stella International Holdings Limited (1836.HK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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