DDM Analysis: 1299.HK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$12.14 - $20.60	$15.83
Multi-Stage	$17.70 - $19.41	$18.54
Blended Fair Value	$17.18
Current Price	$8.97
Upside	91.57%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	3.31%	12.79%	0.21	0.21	0.21	0.20	0.18	0.18	0.13	0.13	0.10	0.08
YoY Growth	-	-	0.91%	1.45%	4.78%	8.64%	1.01%	35.13%	5.52%	22.36%	36.54%	18.86%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.91%	2.49%	1.86%	1.95%	1.48%	1.71%	1.60%	1.55%	1.68%	1.26%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	10,884.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	4,717.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	6,167.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	2,176.80	1,360.50	816.30
Cash Retained (M)	6,167.00	6,167.00	6,167.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-2,176.80	-1,360.50	-816.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)	3,990.20	4,806.50	5,350.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	11,057.75	11,057.75	11,057.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.36	0.43	0.48
LTM Dividend per Share	0.43	0.43	0.43
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.36	0.43	0.48
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.79	0.86	0.91
WACC / Discount Rate	7.62%	7.62%	7.62%
Growth Rate	1.06%	2.06%	3.06%
Fair Value	$12.14	$15.83	$20.60
Upside / Downside	35.35%	76.42%	129.68%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	10,884.00	11,108.57	11,337.78	11,571.71	11,810.48	12,054.17	12,415.79
Payout Ratio	43.34%	52.67%	62.00%	71.34%	80.67%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	4,717.00	5,851.00	7,029.80	8,254.74	9,527.25	10,848.75	11,484.61

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.62%	7.62%	7.62%
Growth Rate	1.06%	2.06%	3.06%
Year 1 PV (M)	5,383.56	5,436.83	5,490.10
Year 2 PV (M)	5,951.43	6,069.79	6,189.31
Year 3 PV (M)	6,430.15	6,622.92	6,819.50
Year 4 PV (M)	6,828.48	7,102.78	7,385.27
Year 5 PV (M)	7,154.43	7,515.47	7,890.93
PV of Terminal Value (M)	164,006.76	172,282.99	180,890.01
Equity Value (M)	195,754.81	205,030.77	214,665.12
Shares Outstanding (M)	11,057.75	11,057.75	11,057.75
Fair Value	$17.70	$18.54	$19.41
Upside / Downside	97.36%	106.71%	116.42%

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AIA Group Limited (1299.HK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener