DDM Analysis: 1221.HK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$0.55 - $0.72	$0.64
Multi-Stage	$0.96 - $1.07	$1.01
Blended Fair Value	$0.83
Current Price	$1.36
Upside	-39.19%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	-12.54%	-7.25%	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	100.43%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	-100.00%	-35.76%	30.96%	12.39%	-1.23%	-1.46%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.06%	0.03%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.06%	0.07%	0.05%	0.06%	0.07%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	167.66
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	1.16
(=) Cash Retained (M)	166.49

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	33.53	20.96	12.57
Cash Retained (M)	166.49	166.49	166.49
(-) Cash Required (M)	-33.53	-20.96	-12.57
(=) Excess Retained (M)	132.96	145.53	153.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,153.57	1,153.57	1,153.57
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.12	0.13	0.13
LTM Dividend per Share	0.00	0.00	0.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.12	0.13	0.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.12	0.13	0.13
WACC / Discount Rate	9.96%	9.96%	9.96%
Growth Rate	-9.25%	-8.25%	-7.25%
Fair Value	$0.55	$0.64	$0.72
Upside / Downside	-59.62%	-52.90%	-46.74%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	167.66	153.82	141.12	129.47	118.79	108.98	112.25
Payout Ratio	0.69%	18.56%	36.42%	54.28%	72.14%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	1.16	28.54	51.39	70.27	85.69	98.08	103.83

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.96%	9.96%	9.96%
Growth Rate	-9.25%	-8.25%	-7.25%
Year 1 PV (M)	25.67	25.96	26.24
Year 2 PV (M)	41.58	42.50	43.44
Year 3 PV (M)	51.15	52.86	54.60
Year 4 PV (M)	56.10	58.62	61.21
Year 5 PV (M)	57.76	61.02	64.41
PV of Terminal Value (M)	878.69	928.19	979.89
Equity Value (M)	1,110.96	1,169.14	1,229.79
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,153.57	1,153.57	1,153.57
Fair Value	$0.96	$1.01	$1.07
Upside / Downside	-29.19%	-25.48%	-21.61%

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Sector

Sino Hotels (Holdings) Limited (1221.HK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener