DDM Analysis: 0839.HK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$8.96 - $23.36	$21.89
Multi-Stage	$3.43 - $3.75	$3.58
Blended Fair Value	$12.74
Current Price	$2.27
Upside	461.20%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	5.04%	0.00%	0.09	0.46	0.15	0.24	0.15	0.07	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	-80.03%	208.10%	-37.99%	55.09%	116.14%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.81%	10.49%	1.97%	2.04%	1.17%	0.75%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	314.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	243.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	71.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	62.80	39.25	23.55
Cash Retained (M)	71.00	71.00	71.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-62.80	-39.25	-23.55
(=) Excess Retained (M)	8.20	31.75	47.45
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	2,673.00	2,673.00	2,673.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.00	0.01	0.02
LTM Dividend per Share	0.09	0.09	0.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.00	0.01	0.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.09	0.10	0.11
WACC / Discount Rate	6.61%	6.61%	6.61%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$8.96	$21.89	$23.36
Upside / Downside	294.59%	864.48%	929.17%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	314.00	334.41	356.15	379.30	403.95	430.21	443.11
Payout Ratio	77.39%	79.91%	82.43%	84.96%	87.48%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	243.00	267.23	293.58	322.23	353.37	387.19	409.88

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.61%	6.61%	6.61%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	248.31	250.67	253.02
Year 2 PV (M)	253.49	258.32	263.20
Year 3 PV (M)	258.54	265.96	273.52
Year 4 PV (M)	263.45	273.58	284.00
Year 5 PV (M)	268.23	281.19	294.64
PV of Terminal Value (M)	7,872.48	8,252.72	8,647.52
Equity Value (M)	9,164.50	9,582.44	10,015.90
Shares Outstanding (M)	2,673.00	2,673.00	2,673.00
Fair Value	$3.43	$3.58	$3.75
Upside / Downside	51.04%	57.93%	65.07%

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China Education Group Holdings Limited (0839.HK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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