DDM Analysis: 0696.HK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$14.17 - $23.20	$18.20
Multi-Stage	$25.47 - $28.02	$26.72
Blended Fair Value	$22.46
Current Price	$9.58
Upside	134.44%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-10.26%	2.10%	0.17	0.06	0.06	0.02	0.29	0.30	0.26	0.22	0.17	0.13
YoY Growth	-	-	203.16%	1.57%	177.95%	-93.00%	-2.88%	15.23%	15.71%	33.73%	24.81%	-5.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.76%	0.46%	0.38%	0.19%	1.83%	1.74%	1.46%	1.10%	1.14%	1.25%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	3,720.49
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	676.87
(=) Cash Retained (M)	3,043.62

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	744.10	465.06	279.04
Cash Retained (M)	3,043.62	3,043.62	3,043.62
(-) Cash Required (M)	-744.10	-465.06	-279.04
(=) Excess Retained (M)	2,299.52	2,578.56	2,764.58
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	2,926.21	2,926.21	2,926.21
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.79	0.88	0.94
LTM Dividend per Share	0.23	0.23	0.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.79	0.88	0.94
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.02	1.11	1.18
WACC / Discount Rate	6.82%	6.82%	6.82%
Growth Rate	-0.33%	0.67%	1.67%
Fair Value	$14.17	$18.20	$23.20
Upside / Downside	47.91%	89.95%	142.15%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	3,720.49	3,745.43	3,770.54	3,795.82	3,821.26	3,846.88	3,962.28
Payout Ratio	18.19%	32.55%	46.92%	61.28%	75.64%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	676.87	1,219.30	1,768.98	2,325.97	2,890.35	3,462.19	3,665.11

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.82%	6.82%	6.82%
Growth Rate	-0.33%	0.67%	1.67%
Year 1 PV (M)	1,130.07	1,141.40	1,152.74
Year 2 PV (M)	1,519.52	1,550.17	1,581.12
Year 3 PV (M)	1,851.74	1,908.04	1,965.46
Year 4 PV (M)	2,132.64	2,219.53	2,309.04
Year 5 PV (M)	2,367.61	2,488.79	2,614.88
PV of Terminal Value (M)	65,528.33	68,882.21	72,372.04
Equity Value (M)	74,529.92	78,190.14	81,995.28
Shares Outstanding (M)	2,926.21	2,926.21	2,926.21
Fair Value	$25.47	$26.72	$28.02
Upside / Downside	165.86%	178.92%	192.49%

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TravelSky Technology Limited (0696.HK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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