DDM Analysis: 0133.HK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$13.13 - $20.57	$16.55
Multi-Stage	$21.42 - $23.56	$22.47
Blended Fair Value	$19.51
Current Price	$1.88
Upside	937.71%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	11.38%	7.18%	0.12	0.07	0.14	0.08	0.07	0.07	0.11	0.06	0.06	0.06
YoY Growth	-	-	71.43%	-50.00%	75.00%	14.29%	0.00%	-36.36%	83.33%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	6.63%	7.14%	13.33%	6.67%	5.83%	5.34%	9.09%	3.61%	4.03%	3.61%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	202.85
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	28.94
(=) Cash Retained (M)	173.90

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	40.57	25.36	15.21
Cash Retained (M)	173.90	173.90	173.90
(-) Cash Required (M)	-40.57	-25.36	-15.21
(=) Excess Retained (M)	133.33	148.55	158.69
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	152.33	152.33	152.33
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.88	0.98	1.04
LTM Dividend per Share	0.19	0.19	0.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.88	0.98	1.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.07	1.17	1.23
WACC / Discount Rate	7.67%	7.67%	7.67%
Growth Rate	-0.41%	0.59%	1.59%
Fair Value	$13.13	$16.55	$20.57
Upside / Downside	598.17%	780.18%	994.22%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	202.85	204.04	205.24	206.45	207.67	208.89	215.15
Payout Ratio	14.27%	29.41%	44.56%	59.71%	74.85%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	28.94	60.02	91.46	123.27	155.45	188.00	199.02

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.67%	7.67%	7.67%
Growth Rate	-0.41%	0.59%	1.59%
Year 1 PV (M)	55.19	55.74	56.30
Year 2 PV (M)	77.33	78.89	80.47
Year 3 PV (M)	95.84	98.75	101.73
Year 4 PV (M)	111.13	115.66	120.33
Year 5 PV (M)	123.58	129.91	136.50
PV of Terminal Value (M)	2,800.59	2,944.05	3,093.33
Equity Value (M)	3,263.66	3,423.01	3,588.65
Shares Outstanding (M)	152.33	152.33	152.33
Fair Value	$21.42	$22.47	$23.56
Upside / Downside	1,039.60%	1,095.24%	1,153.08%

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China Merchants China Direct Investments Limited (0133.HK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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