DDM Analysis: 002973.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$35.51 - $97.50	$91.37
Multi-Stage	$13.91 - $15.21	$14.55
Blended Fair Value	$52.96
Current Price	$15.89
Upside	233.27%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	28.72%	0.00%	0.47	0.48	0.40	0.34	0.21	0.13	0.02	0.09	0.05	0.19
YoY Growth	-	-	-0.68%	20.18%	17.58%	60.11%	57.25%	475.90%	-73.04%	63.82%	-72.15%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.90%	4.54%	3.54%	2.76%	1.07%	0.74%	0.28%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	196.88
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	117.72
(=) Cash Retained (M)	79.16

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	39.38	24.61	14.77
Cash Retained (M)	79.16	79.16	79.16
(-) Cash Required (M)	-39.38	-24.61	-14.77
(=) Excess Retained (M)	39.78	54.55	64.39
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	401.61	401.61	401.61
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.10	0.14	0.16
LTM Dividend per Share	0.29	0.29	0.29
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.10	0.14	0.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.39	0.43	0.45
WACC / Discount Rate	6.67%	6.67%	6.67%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$35.51	$91.37	$97.50
Upside / Downside	123.47%	475.00%	513.57%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	196.88	209.68	223.31	237.82	253.28	269.75	277.84
Payout Ratio	59.79%	65.84%	71.88%	77.92%	83.96%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	117.72	138.04	160.51	185.31	212.65	242.77	257.00

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.67%	6.67%	6.67%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	128.20	129.42	130.63
Year 2 PV (M)	138.44	141.07	143.74
Year 3 PV (M)	148.43	152.69	157.04
Year 4 PV (M)	158.19	164.28	170.54
Year 5 PV (M)	167.72	175.83	184.24
PV of Terminal Value (M)	4,844.30	5,078.28	5,321.22
Equity Value (M)	5,585.29	5,841.57	6,107.39
Shares Outstanding (M)	401.61	401.61	401.61
Fair Value	$13.91	$14.55	$15.21
Upside / Downside	-12.48%	-8.46%	-4.30%

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Qiaoyin City Management Co.,Ltd. (002973.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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