DDM Analysis: 002945.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$4.34 - $12.22	$6.76
Multi-Stage	$5.45 - $5.99	$5.72
Blended Fair Value	$6.24
Current Price	$16.77
Upside	-62.81%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-8.55%	-7.04%	0.03	0.09	0.08	0.11	0.07	0.05	0.03	0.07	0.02	0.20
YoY Growth	-	-	-65.75%	10.30%	-28.89%	57.47%	51.17%	50.97%	-53.82%	225.47%	-89.41%	213.37%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.20%	0.75%	0.55%	0.78%	0.60%	0.33%	0.21%	1.32%	0.40%	3.82%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	491.11
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	148.53
(=) Cash Retained (M)	342.58

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	98.22	61.39	36.83
Cash Retained (M)	342.58	342.58	342.58
(-) Cash Required (M)	-98.22	-61.39	-36.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)	244.36	281.19	305.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	2,698.58	2,698.58	2,698.58
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.09	0.10	0.11
LTM Dividend per Share	0.06	0.06	0.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.09	0.10	0.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.15	0.16	0.17
WACC / Discount Rate	5.99%	5.99%	5.99%
Growth Rate	2.55%	3.55%	4.55%
Fair Value	$4.34	$6.76	$12.22
Upside / Downside	-74.12%	-59.71%	-27.15%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	491.11	508.55	526.60	545.30	564.66	584.71	602.25
Payout Ratio	30.24%	42.19%	54.15%	66.10%	78.05%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	148.53	214.58	285.13	360.43	440.71	526.24	557.08

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	5.99%	5.99%	5.99%
Growth Rate	2.55%	3.55%	4.55%
Year 1 PV (M)	200.50	202.45	204.41
Year 2 PV (M)	248.93	253.81	258.74
Year 3 PV (M)	294.01	302.70	311.55
Year 4 PV (M)	335.91	349.20	362.89
Year 5 PV (M)	374.77	393.40	412.77
PV of Terminal Value (M)	13,264.44	13,923.90	14,609.34
Equity Value (M)	14,718.56	15,425.47	16,159.69
Shares Outstanding (M)	2,698.58	2,698.58	2,698.58
Fair Value	$5.45	$5.72	$5.99
Upside / Downside	-67.48%	-65.91%	-64.29%

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ChinaLin Securities Co., Ltd. (002945.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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