DDM Analysis: 002928.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$11.14 - $32.05	$17.46
Multi-Stage	$10.30 - $11.29	$10.78
Blended Fair Value	$14.12
Current Price	$10.02
Upside	40.92%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	5.72%	26.88%	0.16	0.16	0.13	0.15	0.13	0.12	0.10	0.04	0.01	0.04
YoY Growth	-	-	-0.30%	20.91%	-11.01%	12.70%	9.25%	23.40%	128.43%	255.29%	-68.49%	159.43%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.18%	2.68%	1.13%	1.44%	0.82%	1.40%	1.00%	0.25%	0.09%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	581.22
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	155.98
(=) Cash Retained (M)	425.25

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	116.24	72.65	43.59
Cash Retained (M)	425.25	425.25	425.25
(-) Cash Required (M)	-116.24	-72.65	-43.59
(=) Excess Retained (M)	309.00	352.60	381.66
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,277.41	1,277.41	1,277.41
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.24	0.28	0.30
LTM Dividend per Share	0.12	0.12	0.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.24	0.28	0.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.36	0.40	0.42
WACC / Discount Rate	7.11%	7.11%	7.11%
Growth Rate	3.72%	4.72%	5.72%
Fair Value	$11.14	$17.46	$32.05
Upside / Downside	11.21%	74.23%	219.87%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	581.22	608.68	637.43	667.54	699.07	732.09	754.05
Payout Ratio	26.84%	39.47%	52.10%	64.73%	77.37%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	155.98	240.24	332.11	432.13	540.85	658.88	697.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.11%	7.11%	7.11%
Growth Rate	3.72%	4.72%	5.72%
Year 1 PV (M)	222.14	224.29	226.43
Year 2 PV (M)	283.97	289.47	295.03
Year 3 PV (M)	341.66	351.64	361.81
Year 4 PV (M)	395.42	410.89	426.81
Year 5 PV (M)	445.44	467.33	490.07
PV of Terminal Value (M)	11,468.05	12,031.63	12,617.16
Equity Value (M)	13,156.69	13,775.25	14,417.30
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,277.41	1,277.41	1,277.41
Fair Value	$10.30	$10.78	$11.29
Upside / Downside	2.79%	7.62%	12.64%

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Financial Statements

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Ticker

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Sector

China Express Airlines Co.,LTD (002928.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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