DDM Analysis: 002912.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$2.68 - $3.63	$3.16
Multi-Stage	$6.38 - $7.04	$6.70
Blended Fair Value	$4.93
Current Price	$28.43
Upside	-82.65%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-5.77%	13.14%	0.30	0.00	0.00	0.41	0.41	0.41	0.29	0.23	0.29	0.11
YoY Growth	-	-	47,378.98%	73.01%	-99.91%	-1.20%	2.18%	38.67%	25.06%	-20.00%	177.78%	20.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.12%	0.00%	0.00%	1.57%	0.85%	0.43%	0.40%	0.48%	1.72%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	96.25
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	34.30
(=) Cash Retained (M)	61.95

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	19.25	12.03	7.22
Cash Retained (M)	61.95	61.95	61.95
(-) Cash Required (M)	-19.25	-12.03	-7.22
(=) Excess Retained (M)	42.70	49.92	54.73
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	171.20	171.20	171.20
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.25	0.29	0.32
LTM Dividend per Share	0.20	0.20	0.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.25	0.29	0.32
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.45	0.49	0.52
WACC / Discount Rate	7.74%	7.74%	7.74%
Growth Rate	-7.77%	-6.77%	-5.77%
Fair Value	$2.68	$3.16	$3.63
Upside / Downside	-90.59%	-88.87%	-87.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	96.25	89.74	83.67	78.01	72.73	67.81	69.85
Payout Ratio	35.64%	46.51%	57.38%	68.25%	79.13%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	34.30	41.74	48.01	53.24	57.55	61.03	64.61

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.74%	7.74%	7.74%
Growth Rate	-7.77%	-6.77%	-5.77%
Year 1 PV (M)	38.33	38.74	39.16
Year 2 PV (M)	40.48	41.36	42.26
Year 3 PV (M)	41.22	42.58	43.96
Year 4 PV (M)	40.92	42.72	44.58
Year 5 PV (M)	39.84	42.05	44.35
PV of Terminal Value (M)	890.74	940.08	991.59
Equity Value (M)	1,091.53	1,147.54	1,205.90
Shares Outstanding (M)	171.20	171.20	171.20
Fair Value	$6.38	$6.70	$7.04
Upside / Downside	-77.57%	-76.42%	-75.22%

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Shenzhen Sinovatio Technology Co., Ltd. (002912.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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