DDM Analysis: 002817.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$31.81 - $37.48	$35.13
Multi-Stage	$8.74 - $9.58	$9.16
Blended Fair Value	$22.14
Current Price	$7.58
Upside	192.10%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	28.37%	8.90%	0.08	0.06	0.06	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.03	0.04	0.04	0.04
YoY Growth	-	-	42.40%	-9.27%	83.09%	31.72%	11.89%	-22.73%	-15.38%	-4.45%	9.72%	-1.88%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.29%	0.84%	0.77%	0.38%	0.43%	0.37%	0.51%	0.47%	0.23%	0.61%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	57.77
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	19.44
(=) Cash Retained (M)	38.33

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	11.55	7.22	4.33
Cash Retained (M)	38.33	38.33	38.33
(-) Cash Required (M)	-11.55	-7.22	-4.33
(=) Excess Retained (M)	26.78	31.11	34.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	306.52	306.52	306.52
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.09	0.10	0.11
LTM Dividend per Share	0.06	0.06	0.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.09	0.10	0.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.15	0.16	0.17
WACC / Discount Rate	5.24%	5.24%	5.24%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$31.81	$35.13	$37.48
Upside / Downside	319.71%	363.41%	394.49%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	57.77	61.53	65.53	69.78	74.32	79.15	81.53
Payout Ratio	33.65%	44.92%	56.19%	67.46%	78.73%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	19.44	27.64	36.82	47.08	58.51	71.24	75.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	5.24%	5.24%	5.24%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	26.02	26.26	26.51
Year 2 PV (M)	32.62	33.24	33.87
Year 3 PV (M)	39.26	40.39	41.53
Year 4 PV (M)	45.93	47.70	49.51
Year 5 PV (M)	52.63	55.17	57.81
PV of Terminal Value (M)	2,483.65	2,603.61	2,728.17
Equity Value (M)	2,680.11	2,806.37	2,937.40
Shares Outstanding (M)	306.52	306.52	306.52
Fair Value	$8.74	$9.16	$9.58
Upside / Downside	15.35%	20.78%	26.42%

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Anhui Huangshan Capsule Co., Ltd. (002817.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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