DDM Analysis: 002707.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$0.29 - $0.40	$0.34
Multi-Stage	$0.97 - $1.07	$1.02
Blended Fair Value	$0.68
Current Price	$7.36
Upside	-90.76%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-18.28%	8.39%	0.03	0.03	0.04	0.05	0.06	0.07	0.08	0.05	0.06	0.02
YoY Growth	-	-	-21.11%	-18.51%	-14.48%	-13.88%	-23.04%	-9.21%	49.11%	-4.28%	141.45%	96.36%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.34%	0.49%	0.44%	0.65%	0.88%	1.58%	0.98%	0.43%	0.37%	0.10%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	49.44
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	14.05
(=) Cash Retained (M)	35.39

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	9.89	6.18	3.71
Cash Retained (M)	35.39	35.39	35.39
(-) Cash Required (M)	-9.89	-6.18	-3.71
(=) Excess Retained (M)	25.50	29.21	31.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	991.97	991.97	991.97
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.03	0.03	0.03
LTM Dividend per Share	0.01	0.01	0.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.03	0.03	0.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.04	0.04	0.05
WACC / Discount Rate	5.88%	5.88%	5.88%
Growth Rate	-7.08%	-6.08%	-5.08%
Fair Value	$0.29	$0.34	$0.40
Upside / Downside	-96.11%	-95.34%	-94.57%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	49.44	46.43	43.61	40.96	38.47	36.14	37.22
Payout Ratio	28.41%	40.73%	53.05%	65.37%	77.68%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	14.05	18.91	23.14	26.78	29.89	32.52	34.43

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	5.88%	5.88%	5.88%
Growth Rate	-7.08%	-6.08%	-5.08%
Year 1 PV (M)	17.67	17.86	18.05
Year 2 PV (M)	20.20	20.64	21.08
Year 3 PV (M)	21.85	22.56	23.29
Year 4 PV (M)	22.79	23.79	24.82
Year 5 PV (M)	23.17	24.45	25.78
PV of Terminal Value (M)	853.13	900.03	948.98
Equity Value (M)	958.82	1,009.33	1,061.99
Shares Outstanding (M)	991.97	991.97	991.97
Fair Value	$0.97	$1.02	$1.07
Upside / Downside	-86.87%	-86.18%	-85.45%

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UTour Group Co., Ltd. (002707.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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