DDM Analysis: 002697.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$47.31 - $75.82	$71.06
Multi-Stage	$12.30 - $13.47	$12.87
Blended Fair Value	$41.96
Current Price	$5.56
Upside	654.73%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	18.53%	14.80%	0.13	0.45	0.01	0.16	0.09	0.05	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.04
YoY Growth	-	-	-71.95%	3,057.14%	-91.14%	81.61%	64.15%	152.38%	10.53%	2,461.06%	-98.09%	24.53%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.37%	9.05%	0.23%	3.29%	1.47%	0.55%	0.37%	0.34%	0.01%	0.73%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	513.81
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	156.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)	357.41

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	102.76	64.23	38.54
Cash Retained (M)	357.41	357.41	357.41
(-) Cash Required (M)	-102.76	-64.23	-38.54
(=) Excess Retained (M)	254.65	293.18	318.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,347.68	1,347.68	1,347.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.19	0.22	0.24
LTM Dividend per Share	0.12	0.12	0.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.19	0.22	0.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.31	0.33	0.35
WACC / Discount Rate	6.18%	6.18%	6.18%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$47.31	$71.06	$75.82
Upside / Downside	750.90%	1,177.99%	1,263.70%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	513.81	547.21	582.78	620.66	661.00	703.96	725.08
Payout Ratio	30.44%	42.35%	54.26%	66.18%	78.09%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	156.40	231.75	316.23	410.72	516.16	633.57	670.70

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.18%	6.18%	6.18%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	216.21	218.26	220.31
Year 2 PV (M)	275.25	280.49	285.79
Year 3 PV (M)	333.52	343.10	352.85
Year 4 PV (M)	391.04	406.08	421.55
Year 5 PV (M)	447.81	469.44	491.89
PV of Terminal Value (M)	14,906.60	15,626.59	16,374.14
Equity Value (M)	16,570.43	17,343.96	18,146.53
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,347.68	1,347.68	1,347.68
Fair Value	$12.30	$12.87	$13.47
Upside / Downside	121.14%	131.47%	142.18%

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Chengdu Hongqi Chain Co.,Ltd. (002697.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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