DDM Analysis: 002670.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$2.85 - $5.78	$3.98
Multi-Stage	$5.15 - $5.66	$5.40
Blended Fair Value	$4.69
Current Price	$24.34
Upside	-80.73%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-13.90%	9.08%	0.09	0.08	0.10	0.13	0.17	0.19	0.19	0.11	0.00	0.05
YoY Growth	-	-	15.77%	-26.20%	-20.93%	-20.07%	-12.39%	-1.74%	74.85%	2,324.47%	-91.48%	42.08%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.68%	0.82%	1.20%	1.46%	1.62%	1.95%	1.29%	0.84%	0.03%	0.39%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	326.35
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	135.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)	190.75

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	65.27	40.79	24.48
Cash Retained (M)	190.75	190.75	190.75
(-) Cash Required (M)	-65.27	-40.79	-24.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)	125.48	149.96	166.27
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,934.45	1,934.45	1,934.45
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.06	0.08	0.09
LTM Dividend per Share	0.07	0.07	0.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.06	0.08	0.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.13	0.15	0.16
WACC / Discount Rate	5.75%	5.75%	5.75%
Growth Rate	0.97%	1.97%	2.97%
Fair Value	$2.85	$3.98	$5.78
Upside / Downside	-88.28%	-83.63%	-76.24%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	326.35	332.79	339.36	346.05	352.89	359.85	370.65
Payout Ratio	41.55%	51.24%	60.93%	70.62%	80.31%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	135.60	170.52	206.77	244.38	283.40	323.87	342.85

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	5.75%	5.75%	5.75%
Growth Rate	0.97%	1.97%	2.97%
Year 1 PV (M)	159.66	161.25	162.83
Year 2 PV (M)	181.28	184.89	188.53
Year 3 PV (M)	200.62	206.64	212.78
Year 4 PV (M)	217.84	226.59	235.61
Year 5 PV (M)	233.09	244.86	257.11
PV of Terminal Value (M)	8,966.17	9,419.04	9,890.02
Equity Value (M)	9,958.66	10,443.26	10,946.88
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,934.45	1,934.45	1,934.45
Fair Value	$5.15	$5.40	$5.66
Upside / Downside	-78.85%	-77.82%	-76.75%

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Guosheng Securities Inc (002670.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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