DDM Analysis: 002612.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$236.89 - $466.02	$436.73
Multi-Stage	$71.42 - $78.23	$74.76
Blended Fair Value	$255.74
Current Price	$17.18
Upside	1,388.61%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	1.00%	1.96%	0.55	0.15	0.18	0.39	0.20	0.52	0.44	0.15	0.09	0.06
YoY Growth	-	-	259.93%	-14.14%	-54.55%	96.48%	-61.91%	18.27%	184.95%	71.43%	63.21%	-87.75%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.63%	0.88%	0.73%	1.62%	0.54%	6.37%	4.09%	1.23%	0.54%	0.08%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	1,036.66
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	204.97
(=) Cash Retained (M)	831.69

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	207.33	129.58	77.75
Cash Retained (M)	831.69	831.69	831.69
(-) Cash Required (M)	-207.33	-129.58	-77.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)	624.36	702.11	753.94
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	442.40	442.40	442.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share	1.41	1.59	1.70
LTM Dividend per Share	0.46	0.46	0.46
(+) Excess Retained per Share	1.41	1.59	1.70
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.87	2.05	2.17
WACC / Discount Rate	6.33%	6.33%	6.33%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$236.89	$436.73	$466.02
Upside / Downside	1,278.85%	2,442.06%	2,612.55%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	1,036.66	1,104.04	1,175.81	1,252.23	1,333.63	1,420.32	1,462.92
Payout Ratio	19.77%	33.82%	47.86%	61.91%	75.95%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	204.97	373.36	562.78	775.24	1,012.95	1,278.28	1,353.21

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.33%	6.33%	6.33%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	347.82	351.12	354.42
Year 2 PV (M)	488.42	497.72	507.11
Year 3 PV (M)	626.79	644.78	663.11
Year 4 PV (M)	762.95	792.29	822.47
Year 5 PV (M)	896.94	940.26	985.24
PV of Terminal Value (M)	28,472.10	29,847.32	31,275.16
Equity Value (M)	31,595.02	33,073.49	34,607.52
Shares Outstanding (M)	442.40	442.40	442.40
Fair Value	$71.42	$74.76	$78.23
Upside / Downside	315.70%	335.15%	355.34%

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Lancy Co., Ltd. (002612.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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