DDM Analysis: 002468.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$6.56 - $9.71	$8.06
Multi-Stage	$5.47 - $5.95	$5.71
Blended Fair Value	$6.89
Current Price	$17.90
Upside	-61.53%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-27.53%	19.75%	0.11	0.08	0.13	0.10	0.14	0.54	0.20	0.10	0.48	0.53
YoY Growth	-	-	27.66%	-33.65%	31.60%	-32.99%	-73.24%	162.92%	98.20%	-78.53%	-9.65%	2,901.33%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.91%	0.98%	1.14%	1.30%	1.56%	3.07%	0.82%	0.42%	1.69%	1.72%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	1,143.14
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	172.78
(=) Cash Retained (M)	970.35

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	228.63	142.89	85.74
Cash Retained (M)	970.35	970.35	970.35
(-) Cash Required (M)	-228.63	-142.89	-85.74
(=) Excess Retained (M)	741.73	827.46	884.62
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,498.86	1,498.86	1,498.86
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.49	0.55	0.59
LTM Dividend per Share	0.12	0.12	0.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.49	0.55	0.59
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.61	0.67	0.71
WACC / Discount Rate	15.31%	15.31%	15.31%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$6.56	$8.06	$9.71
Upside / Downside	-63.36%	-54.95%	-45.78%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	1,143.14	1,217.44	1,296.57	1,380.85	1,470.61	1,566.20	1,613.18
Payout Ratio	15.11%	30.09%	45.07%	60.05%	75.02%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	172.78	366.35	584.35	829.14	1,103.29	1,409.58	1,492.19

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	15.31%	15.31%	15.31%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	314.71	317.70	320.68
Year 2 PV (M)	431.23	439.45	447.74
Year 3 PV (M)	525.64	540.73	556.11
Year 4 PV (M)	600.86	623.96	647.73
Year 5 PV (M)	659.46	691.31	724.38
PV of Terminal Value (M)	5,669.19	5,943.01	6,227.32
Equity Value (M)	8,201.10	8,556.17	8,923.96
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,498.86	1,498.86	1,498.86
Fair Value	$5.47	$5.71	$5.95
Upside / Downside	-69.43%	-68.11%	-66.74%

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STO Express Co., Ltd. (002468.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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