DDM Analysis: 002428.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$1.76 - $5.94	$2.89
Multi-Stage	$1.23 - $1.34	$1.28
Blended Fair Value	$2.08
Current Price	$28.90
Upside	-92.79%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	27.94%	-2.11%	0.07	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.04	0.06
YoY Growth	-	-	81.84%	5.72%	-8.63%	34.10%	45.54%	58.62%	-10.05%	-65.57%	-29.85%	-31.60%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.35%	0.34%	0.32%	0.29%	0.30%	0.23%	0.16%	0.11%	0.32%	0.31%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	41.77
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	40.53
(=) Cash Retained (M)	1.24

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	8.35	5.22	3.13
Cash Retained (M)	1.24	1.24	1.24
(-) Cash Required (M)	-8.35	-5.22	-3.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)	-7.11	-3.98	-1.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	649.21	649.21	649.21
(=) Excess Retained per Share	-0.01	-0.01	0.00
LTM Dividend per Share	0.06	0.06	0.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share	-0.01	-0.01	0.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.05	0.06	0.06
WACC / Discount Rate	8.58%	8.58%	8.58%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$1.76	$2.89	$5.94
Upside / Downside	-93.89%	-90.01%	-79.44%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	41.77	44.48	47.38	50.46	53.73	57.23	58.94
Payout Ratio	97.03%	95.62%	94.22%	92.81%	91.41%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	40.53	42.54	44.64	46.83	49.12	51.50	54.52

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.58%	8.58%	8.58%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	38.81	39.18	39.54
Year 2 PV (M)	37.15	37.86	38.58
Year 3 PV (M)	35.56	36.58	37.62
Year 4 PV (M)	34.03	35.34	36.69
Year 5 PV (M)	32.56	34.13	35.76
PV of Terminal Value (M)	618.04	647.89	678.88
Equity Value (M)	796.15	830.98	867.08
Shares Outstanding (M)	649.21	649.21	649.21
Fair Value	$1.23	$1.28	$1.34
Upside / Downside	-95.76%	-95.57%	-95.38%

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Yunnan Lincang Xinyuan Germanium Industry Co.,LTD (002428.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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