DDM Analysis: 002338.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$4.86 - $10.63	$6.97
Multi-Stage	$3.96 - $4.32	$4.14
Blended Fair Value	$5.56
Current Price	$57.65
Upside	-90.36%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	6.02%	-6.71%	0.07	0.04	0.05	0.08	0.05	0.05	0.03	0.11	0.09	0.15
YoY Growth	-	-	85.30%	-19.82%	-43.57%	58.77%	0.65%	66.88%	-72.94%	26.81%	-39.12%	6.92%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.15%	0.12%	0.17%	0.44%	0.30%	0.38%	0.19%	0.84%	0.38%	0.53%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	59.07
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	18.59
(=) Cash Retained (M)	40.49

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	11.81	7.38	4.43
Cash Retained (M)	40.49	40.49	40.49
(-) Cash Required (M)	-11.81	-7.38	-4.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)	28.67	33.10	36.06
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	235.12	235.12	235.12
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.12	0.14	0.15
LTM Dividend per Share	0.08	0.08	0.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.12	0.14	0.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.20	0.22	0.23
WACC / Discount Rate	9.06%	9.06%	9.06%
Growth Rate	4.73%	5.73%	6.73%
Fair Value	$4.86	$6.97	$10.63
Upside / Downside	-91.57%	-87.90%	-81.56%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	59.07	62.46	66.04	69.82	73.82	78.05	80.39
Payout Ratio	31.46%	43.17%	54.88%	66.58%	78.29%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	18.59	26.96	36.24	46.49	57.79	70.24	74.36

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.06%	9.06%	9.06%
Growth Rate	4.73%	5.73%	6.73%
Year 1 PV (M)	24.49	24.72	24.96
Year 2 PV (M)	29.89	30.47	31.05
Year 3 PV (M)	34.83	35.84	36.86
Year 4 PV (M)	39.33	40.85	42.42
Year 5 PV (M)	43.41	45.52	47.72
PV of Terminal Value (M)	758.15	795.04	833.36
Equity Value (M)	930.10	972.44	1,016.36
Shares Outstanding (M)	235.12	235.12	235.12
Fair Value	$3.96	$4.14	$4.32
Upside / Downside	-93.14%	-92.83%	-92.50%

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Changchun UP Optotech Co.,Ltd. (002338.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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