DDM Analysis: 002246.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$58.27 - $68.77	$64.39
Multi-Stage	$100.35 - $111.09	$105.61
Blended Fair Value	$85.00
Current Price	$22.70
Upside	274.45%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-1.91%	5.03%	0.05	0.05	0.04	0.04	0.06	0.06	0.05	0.14	0.02	0.02
YoY Growth	-	-	0.00%	11.11%	12.39%	-27.27%	0.00%	17.05%	-66.00%	558.42%	-11.12%	-22.80%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.48%	0.61%	0.44%	0.34%	0.84%	0.74%	0.44%	1.17%	0.11%	0.17%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	206.61
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	21.96
(=) Cash Retained (M)	184.65

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	41.32	25.83	15.50
Cash Retained (M)	184.65	184.65	184.65
(-) Cash Required (M)	-41.32	-25.83	-15.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)	143.32	158.82	169.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	549.26	549.26	549.26
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.26	0.29	0.31
LTM Dividend per Share	0.04	0.04	0.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.26	0.29	0.31
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.30	0.33	0.35
WACC / Discount Rate	-20.83%	-20.83%	-20.83%
Growth Rate	-3.18%	-2.18%	-1.18%
Fair Value	$58.27	$64.39	$68.77
Upside / Downside	156.71%	183.67%	202.95%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	206.61	202.11	197.71	193.41	189.20	185.08	190.63
Payout Ratio	10.63%	26.50%	42.38%	58.25%	74.13%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	21.96	53.57	83.79	112.66	140.24	166.57	176.33

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	-20.83%	-20.83%	-20.83%
Growth Rate	-3.18%	-2.18%	-1.18%
Year 1 PV (M)	66.97	67.66	68.35
Year 2 PV (M)	130.95	133.67	136.41
Year 3 PV (M)	220.13	227.02	234.05
Year 4 PV (M)	342.57	356.94	371.76
Year 5 PV (M)	508.66	535.47	563.41
PV of Terminal Value (M)	53,847.21	56,685.95	59,643.16
Equity Value (M)	55,116.48	58,006.71	61,017.15
Shares Outstanding (M)	549.26	549.26	549.26
Fair Value	$100.35	$105.61	$111.09
Upside / Downside	342.05%	365.23%	389.38%

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North Chemical Industries Co., Ltd. (002246.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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