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Definitive Analysis

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CASTECH Inc. (002222.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$101.81 - $119.95$112.41
Multi-Stage$81.07 - $88.98$84.95
Blended Fair Value$98.68
Current Price$49.70
Upside98.55%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS16.02%8.42%0.200.380.140.100.100.100.100.100.050.00
YoY Growth---47.48%166.19%50.21%-3.51%3.74%-2.56%2.63%110.89%1,776.94%-97.30%
Dividend Yield--0.59%1.46%0.68%0.75%0.71%1.02%0.78%0.64%0.31%0.02%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)268.76
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)56.03
(=) Cash Retained (M)212.74
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)53.7533.6020.16
Cash Retained (M)212.74212.74212.74
(-) Cash Required (M)-53.75-33.60-20.16
(=) Excess Retained (M)158.98179.14192.58
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)445.62445.62445.62
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.360.400.43
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.360.400.43
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.480.530.56
WACC / Discount Rate-0.94%-0.94%-0.94%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$101.81$112.41$119.95
Upside / Downside104.85%126.17%141.34%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)268.76286.23304.84324.65345.76368.23379.28
Payout Ratio20.85%34.68%48.51%62.34%76.17%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)56.0399.26147.87202.39263.36331.41350.83

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-0.94%-0.94%-0.94%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)99.26100.20101.14
Year 2 PV (M)147.87150.68153.53
Year 3 PV (M)202.38208.19214.11
Year 4 PV (M)263.35273.47283.89
Year 5 PV (M)331.38347.39364.01
PV of Terminal Value (M)35,080.7236,775.1338,534.39
Equity Value (M)36,124.9537,855.0639,651.06
Shares Outstanding (M)445.62445.62445.62
Fair Value$81.07$84.95$88.98
Upside / Downside63.11%70.93%79.04%

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