DDM Analysis: 002209.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$108.07 - $127.38	$119.35
Multi-Stage	$68.08 - $74.91	$71.43
Blended Fair Value	$95.39
Current Price	$15.00
Upside	535.93%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-5.17%	-7.92%	0.05	0.07	0.05	0.07	0.06	0.06	0.07	0.06	0.07	0.08
YoY Growth	-	-	-30.36%	27.04%	-17.04%	17.32%	-10.95%	-4.59%	7.56%	-14.19%	-9.46%	-28.29%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.44%	0.72%	0.51%	0.85%	0.87%	1.00%	0.77%	0.67%	0.40%	0.34%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	131.09
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	13.65
(=) Cash Retained (M)	117.44

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	26.22	16.39	9.83
Cash Retained (M)	117.44	117.44	117.44
(-) Cash Required (M)	-26.22	-16.39	-9.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)	91.22	101.05	107.61
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	199.46	199.46	199.46
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.46	0.51	0.54
LTM Dividend per Share	0.07	0.07	0.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.46	0.51	0.54
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.53	0.58	0.61
WACC / Discount Rate	1.66%	1.66%	1.66%
Growth Rate	2.77%	3.77%	4.77%
Fair Value	$108.07	$119.35	$127.38
Upside / Downside	620.44%	695.65%	749.22%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	131.09	136.03	141.15	146.47	151.98	157.71	162.44
Payout Ratio	10.41%	26.33%	42.25%	58.17%	74.08%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	13.65	35.82	59.63	85.19	112.59	141.94	150.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	1.66%	1.66%	1.66%
Growth Rate	2.77%	3.77%	4.77%
Year 1 PV (M)	34.89	35.23	35.57
Year 2 PV (M)	56.59	57.70	58.82
Year 3 PV (M)	78.76	81.09	83.45
Year 4 PV (M)	101.41	105.41	109.54
Year 5 PV (M)	124.54	130.71	137.13
PV of Terminal Value (M)	13,183.47	13,837.50	14,517.24
Equity Value (M)	13,579.66	14,247.65	14,941.76
Shares Outstanding (M)	199.46	199.46	199.46
Fair Value	$68.08	$71.43	$74.91
Upside / Downside	353.89%	376.21%	399.41%

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Guangzhou Tech-Long Packaging Machinery Co.,Ltd. (002209.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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