DDM Analysis: 002154.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$22.18 - $43.61	$40.86
Multi-Stage	$6.70 - $7.34	$7.01
Blended Fair Value	$23.94
Current Price	$4.05
Upside	491.10%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	28.73%	17.67%	0.33	0.21	0.48	0.18	0.00	0.09	0.03	0.03	0.05	0.06
YoY Growth	-	-	58.04%	-56.58%	165.20%	0.00%	-100.00%	259.61%	-20.89%	-27.90%	-19.41%	-12.89%
Dividend Yield	-	-	8.04%	3.52%	9.39%	4.69%	0.00%	3.03%	0.63%	1.09%	0.97%	1.07%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	315.66
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	75.90
(=) Cash Retained (M)	239.76

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	63.13	39.46	23.67
Cash Retained (M)	239.76	239.76	239.76
(-) Cash Required (M)	-63.13	-39.46	-23.67
(=) Excess Retained (M)	176.63	200.30	216.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,439.66	1,439.66	1,439.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.12	0.14	0.15
LTM Dividend per Share	0.05	0.05	0.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.12	0.14	0.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.18	0.19	0.20
WACC / Discount Rate	6.33%	6.33%	6.33%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$22.18	$40.86	$43.61
Upside / Downside	447.57%	909.00%	976.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	315.66	336.18	358.03	381.30	406.08	432.48	445.45
Payout Ratio	24.04%	37.24%	50.43%	63.62%	76.81%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	75.90	125.18	180.54	242.57	311.91	389.23	412.04

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.33%	6.33%	6.33%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	116.62	117.72	118.83
Year 2 PV (M)	156.69	159.67	162.69
Year 3 PV (M)	196.12	201.75	207.49
Year 4 PV (M)	234.93	243.97	253.26
Year 5 PV (M)	273.12	286.31	300.01
PV of Terminal Value (M)	8,670.88	9,089.69	9,524.52
Equity Value (M)	9,648.36	10,099.11	10,566.79
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,439.66	1,439.66	1,439.66
Fair Value	$6.70	$7.01	$7.34
Upside / Downside	65.48%	73.21%	81.23%

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Baoxiniao Holding Co., Ltd. (002154.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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