DDM Analysis: 002077.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$0.17 - $0.22	$0.20
Multi-Stage	$0.35 - $0.39	$0.36
Blended Fair Value	$0.28
Current Price	$17.14
Upside	-98.36%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-32.06%	-23.80%	0.04	0.04	0.05	0.08	0.15	0.26	0.28	0.18	0.23	0.40
YoY Growth	-	-	-3.38%	-15.45%	-38.27%	-48.57%	-44.20%	-6.57%	55.26%	-22.74%	-41.17%	-30.86%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.27%	0.28%	0.28%	1.17%	2.65%	4.34%	4.00%	1.65%	1.62%	2.49%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	44.42
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	12.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)	31.54

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	8.88	5.55	3.33
Cash Retained (M)	31.54	31.54	31.54
(-) Cash Required (M)	-8.88	-5.55	-3.33
(=) Excess Retained (M)	22.66	25.99	28.21
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	544.65	544.65	544.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.04	0.05	0.05
LTM Dividend per Share	0.02	0.02	0.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.04	0.05	0.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.07	0.07	0.08
WACC / Discount Rate	9.44%	9.44%	9.44%
Growth Rate	-20.45%	-19.45%	-18.45%
Fair Value	$0.17	$0.20	$0.22
Upside / Downside	-98.99%	-98.84%	-98.71%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	44.42	35.78	28.82	23.22	18.70	15.06	15.52
Payout Ratio	29.00%	41.20%	53.40%	65.60%	77.80%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	12.88	14.74	15.39	15.23	14.55	13.56	14.35

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.44%	9.44%	9.44%
Growth Rate	-20.45%	-19.45%	-18.45%
Year 1 PV (M)	13.30	13.47	13.64
Year 2 PV (M)	12.53	12.85	13.17
Year 3 PV (M)	11.19	11.62	12.06
Year 4 PV (M)	9.65	10.14	10.66
Year 5 PV (M)	8.11	8.64	9.19
PV of Terminal Value (M)	133.41	142.01	151.05
Equity Value (M)	188.20	198.73	209.75
Shares Outstanding (M)	544.65	544.65	544.65
Fair Value	$0.35	$0.36	$0.39
Upside / Downside	-97.98%	-97.87%	-97.75%

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Jiangsu Dagang Co., Ltd. (002077.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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