DDM Analysis: 002041.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$0.44 - $0.64	$0.54
Multi-Stage	$0.77 - $0.85	$0.81
Blended Fair Value	$0.67
Current Price	$9.20
Upside	-92.69%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	167.33%	-0.80%	0.04	0.00	0.04	0.04	0.06	0.00	0.05	0.06	0.00	0.14
YoY Growth	-	-	6,340.77%	-98.41%	2.86%	-41.67%	22,097.08%	-99.48%	-7.14%	0.00%	-100.00%	250.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.37%	0.01%	0.19%	0.15%	0.36%	0.00%	0.77%	0.51%	0.00%	0.97%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	52.04
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	26.38
(=) Cash Retained (M)	25.66

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	10.41	6.50	3.90
Cash Retained (M)	25.66	25.66	25.66
(-) Cash Required (M)	-10.41	-6.50	-3.90
(=) Excess Retained (M)	15.25	19.16	21.76
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	879.25	879.25	879.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.02	0.02	0.02
LTM Dividend per Share	0.03	0.03	0.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.02	0.02	0.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.05	0.05	0.05
WACC / Discount Rate	8.54%	8.54%	8.54%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$0.44	$0.54	$0.64
Upside / Downside	-95.21%	-94.16%	-93.03%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	52.04	51.52	51.00	50.49	49.98	49.49	50.97
Payout Ratio	50.69%	58.55%	66.41%	74.28%	82.14%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	26.38	30.16	33.87	37.50	41.06	44.54	47.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.54%	8.54%	8.54%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	27.51	27.79	28.07
Year 2 PV (M)	28.17	28.75	29.34
Year 3 PV (M)	28.45	29.33	30.23
Year 4 PV (M)	28.41	29.59	30.80
Year 5 PV (M)	28.11	29.57	31.09
PV of Terminal Value (M)	537.45	565.44	594.58
Equity Value (M)	678.10	710.47	744.11
Shares Outstanding (M)	879.25	879.25	879.25
Fair Value	$0.77	$0.81	$0.85
Upside / Downside	-91.62%	-91.22%	-90.80%

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ShanDongDenghai Seeds Co.,Ltd (002041.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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