DDM Analysis: 001914.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$144.49 - $170.23	$159.53
Multi-Stage	$34.17 - $37.47	$35.79
Blended Fair Value	$97.66
Current Price	$12.20
Upside	700.50%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-7.96%	-12.27%	0.26	0.20	0.21	0.24	0.28	0.39	0.46	0.55	0.71	0.98
YoY Growth	-	-	26.90%	-3.31%	-14.12%	-11.68%	-29.03%	-14.71%	-17.49%	-21.65%	-27.97%	2.93%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.16%	1.97%	1.38%	1.39%	1.40%	1.65%	5.09%	6.08%	5.82%	10.71%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	906.87
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	22.97
(=) Cash Retained (M)	883.90

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	181.37	113.36	68.02
Cash Retained (M)	883.90	883.90	883.90
(-) Cash Required (M)	-181.37	-113.36	-68.02
(=) Excess Retained (M)	702.53	770.54	815.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,059.45	1,059.45	1,059.45
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.66	0.73	0.77
LTM Dividend per Share	0.02	0.02	0.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.66	0.73	0.77
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.68	0.75	0.79
WACC / Discount Rate	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$144.49	$159.53	$170.23
Upside / Downside	1,084.34%	1,207.65%	1,295.35%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	906.87	965.81	1,028.59	1,095.45	1,166.66	1,242.49	1,279.76
Payout Ratio	2.53%	20.03%	37.52%	55.01%	72.51%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	22.97	193.41	385.92	602.64	845.90	1,118.24	1,183.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	181.51	183.23	184.95
Year 2 PV (M)	339.89	346.37	352.90
Year 3 PV (M)	498.10	512.40	526.97
Year 4 PV (M)	656.14	681.38	707.33
Year 5 PV (M)	814.01	853.33	894.15
PV of Terminal Value (M)	33,712.53	35,340.86	37,031.50
Equity Value (M)	36,202.19	37,917.56	39,697.81
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,059.45	1,059.45	1,059.45
Fair Value	$34.17	$35.79	$37.47
Upside / Downside	180.09%	193.36%	207.13%

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China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co., Ltd. (001914.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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