DDM Analysis: 001239.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$74.49 - $87.76	$82.24
Multi-Stage	$28.17 - $30.90	$29.51
Blended Fair Value	$55.87
Current Price	$16.88
Upside	231.01%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019
DPS	14.15%	0.00%	0.06	0.06	0.07	0.10	0.04	0.03	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	0.92%	-13.24%	-30.02%	140.88%	31.32%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.41%	0.37%	0.58%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	105.87
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	22.54
(=) Cash Retained (M)	83.33

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	21.17	13.23	7.94
Cash Retained (M)	83.33	83.33	83.33
(-) Cash Required (M)	-21.17	-13.23	-7.94
(=) Excess Retained (M)	62.16	70.10	75.39
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	239.93	239.93	239.93
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.26	0.29	0.31
LTM Dividend per Share	0.09	0.09	0.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.26	0.29	0.31
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.35	0.39	0.41
WACC / Discount Rate	4.64%	4.64%	4.64%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$74.49	$82.24	$87.76
Upside / Downside	341.27%	387.21%	419.89%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	105.87	112.75	120.08	127.89	136.20	145.05	149.41
Payout Ratio	21.29%	35.03%	48.77%	62.52%	76.26%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	22.54	39.50	58.57	79.95	103.86	130.55	138.20

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	4.64%	4.64%	4.64%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	37.39	37.75	38.10
Year 2 PV (M)	52.49	53.49	54.50
Year 3 PV (M)	67.84	69.78	71.77
Year 4 PV (M)	83.43	86.64	89.94
Year 5 PV (M)	99.28	104.07	109.05
PV of Terminal Value (M)	6,417.96	6,727.95	7,049.81
Equity Value (M)	6,758.39	7,079.69	7,413.17
Shares Outstanding (M)	239.93	239.93	239.93
Fair Value	$28.17	$29.51	$30.90
Upside / Downside	66.87%	74.81%	83.04%

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Xiangtan Yongda Mach Mnfg Co (001239.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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