DDM Analysis: 001202.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$10.39 - $23.26	$15.03
Multi-Stage	$10.11 - $11.08	$10.58
Blended Fair Value	$12.81
Current Price	$15.53
Upside	-17.52%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-7.17%	0.00%	0.31	0.22	0.58	0.02	0.04	0.45	0.16	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	43.04%	-62.68%	3,125.44%	-57.22%	-90.64%	175.57%	51,158.09%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.00%	1.58%	3.89%	0.11%	0.19%	2.07%	0.75%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	73.17
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	4.64
(=) Cash Retained (M)	68.53

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	14.63	9.15	5.49
Cash Retained (M)	68.53	68.53	68.53
(-) Cash Required (M)	-14.63	-9.15	-5.49
(=) Excess Retained (M)	53.90	59.39	63.04
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	137.95	137.95	137.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.39	0.43	0.46
LTM Dividend per Share	0.03	0.03	0.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.39	0.43	0.46
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.42	0.46	0.49
WACC / Discount Rate	7.70%	7.70%	7.70%
Growth Rate	3.47%	4.47%	5.47%
Fair Value	$10.39	$15.03	$23.26
Upside / Downside	-33.09%	-3.20%	49.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	73.17	76.44	79.86	83.43	87.17	91.07	93.80
Payout Ratio	6.34%	23.07%	39.80%	56.53%	73.27%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	4.64	17.64	31.79	47.17	63.86	81.96	86.76

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.70%	7.70%	7.70%
Growth Rate	3.47%	4.47%	5.47%
Year 1 PV (M)	16.22	16.37	16.53
Year 2 PV (M)	26.88	27.40	27.93
Year 3 PV (M)	36.69	37.76	38.85
Year 4 PV (M)	45.68	47.47	49.31
Year 5 PV (M)	53.91	56.57	59.32
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,214.61	1,274.44	1,336.62
Equity Value (M)	1,393.98	1,460.02	1,528.57
Shares Outstanding (M)	137.95	137.95	137.95
Fair Value	$10.11	$10.58	$11.08
Upside / Downside	-34.93%	-31.85%	-28.65%

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Guangdong Jushen Logistics Co., Ltd. (001202.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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