DDM Analysis: 000949.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$10.70 - $21.55	$20.20
Multi-Stage	$3.42 - $3.74	$3.58
Blended Fair Value	$11.89
Current Price	$4.35
Upside	173.29%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	73.69%	5.71%	0.12	0.09	0.18	0.10	0.11	0.01	0.08	0.07	0.07	0.07
YoY Growth	-	-	27.88%	-47.82%	71.75%	-0.37%	1,284.49%	-90.86%	23.02%	-4.28%	-5.41%	8.26%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.82%	2.81%	5.27%	2.15%	2.63%	0.22%	2.39%	1.72%	1.14%	1.72%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	179.49
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	154.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)	25.09

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	35.90	22.44	13.46
Cash Retained (M)	25.09	25.09	25.09
(-) Cash Required (M)	-35.90	-22.44	-13.46
(=) Excess Retained (M)	-10.81	2.65	11.63
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,656.30	1,656.30	1,656.30
(=) Excess Retained per Share	-0.01	0.00	0.01
LTM Dividend per Share	0.09	0.09	0.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share	-0.01	0.00	0.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.09	0.09	0.10
WACC / Discount Rate	6.35%	6.35%	6.35%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$10.70	$20.20	$21.55
Upside / Downside	146.06%	364.29%	395.43%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	179.49	191.15	203.58	216.81	230.90	245.91	253.29
Payout Ratio	86.02%	86.82%	87.61%	88.41%	89.20%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	154.40	165.95	178.36	191.68	205.98	221.32	234.29

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.35%	6.35%	6.35%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	154.57	156.04	157.50
Year 2 PV (M)	154.74	157.68	160.66
Year 3 PV (M)	154.89	159.33	163.86
Year 4 PV (M)	155.03	160.99	167.12
Year 5 PV (M)	155.15	162.65	170.43
PV of Terminal Value (M)	4,896.32	5,132.82	5,378.36
Equity Value (M)	5,670.70	5,929.51	6,197.94
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,656.30	1,656.30	1,656.30
Fair Value	$3.42	$3.58	$3.74
Upside / Downside	-21.29%	-17.70%	-13.98%

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Xinxiang Chemical Fiber Co., Ltd. (000949.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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