DDM Analysis: 000778.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$0.49 - $0.67	$0.58
Multi-Stage	$1.56 - $1.73	$1.64
Blended Fair Value	$1.11
Current Price	$3.85
Upside	-71.10%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-12.91%	-6.15%	0.17	0.25	0.26	0.30	0.30	0.35	0.32	0.24	0.26	0.34
YoY Growth	-	-	-30.07%	-4.39%	-12.71%	-1.16%	-13.13%	8.36%	32.26%	-5.56%	-24.18%	3.06%
Dividend Yield	-	-	5.01%	6.27%	6.43%	5.94%	7.47%	10.05%	6.07%	4.89%	4.70%	6.24%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	383.41
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	232.95
(=) Cash Retained (M)	150.46

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	76.68	47.93	28.76
Cash Retained (M)	150.46	150.46	150.46
(-) Cash Required (M)	-76.68	-47.93	-28.76
(=) Excess Retained (M)	73.78	102.54	121.71
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	3,971.18	3,971.18	3,971.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.02	0.03	0.03
LTM Dividend per Share	0.06	0.06	0.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.02	0.03	0.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.08	0.08	0.09
WACC / Discount Rate	6.35%	6.35%	6.35%
Growth Rate	-8.15%	-7.15%	-6.15%
Fair Value	$0.49	$0.58	$0.67
Upside / Downside	-87.29%	-84.91%	-82.59%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	383.41	355.98	330.52	306.88	284.92	264.54	272.48
Payout Ratio	60.76%	66.61%	72.45%	78.30%	84.15%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	232.95	237.10	239.47	240.29	239.77	238.09	252.04

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.35%	6.35%	6.35%
Growth Rate	-8.15%	-7.15%	-6.15%
Year 1 PV (M)	220.55	222.95	225.35
Year 2 PV (M)	207.20	211.73	216.32
Year 3 PV (M)	193.39	199.77	206.30
Year 4 PV (M)	179.49	187.44	195.64
Year 5 PV (M)	165.79	175.01	184.64
PV of Terminal Value (M)	5,240.69	5,532.26	5,836.67
Equity Value (M)	6,207.11	6,529.17	6,864.93
Shares Outstanding (M)	3,971.18	3,971.18	3,971.18
Fair Value	$1.56	$1.64	$1.73
Upside / Downside	-59.40%	-57.30%	-55.10%

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Xinxing Ductile Iron Pipes Co., Ltd. (000778.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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