DDM Analysis: 000410.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$0.26 - $0.34	$0.30
Multi-Stage	$2.67 - $3.00	$2.83
Blended Fair Value	$1.57
Current Price	$7.22
Upside	-78.28%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-19.30%	-25.79%	0.02	0.02	0.04	0.04	0.05	0.06	0.54	0.61	0.54	0.49
YoY Growth	-	-	8.14%	-45.94%	-5.75%	-23.96%	-18.29%	-88.54%	-11.93%	12.97%	10.43%	17.53%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.28%	0.28%	0.60%	0.81%	1.31%	1.26%	6.93%	5.67%	5.13%	2.87%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	131.46
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	29.23
(=) Cash Retained (M)	102.23

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	26.29	16.43	9.86
Cash Retained (M)	102.23	102.23	102.23
(-) Cash Required (M)	-26.29	-16.43	-9.86
(=) Excess Retained (M)	75.94	85.80	92.37
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,651.53	1,651.53	1,651.53
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.05	0.05	0.06
LTM Dividend per Share	0.02	0.02	0.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.05	0.05	0.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.06	0.07	0.07
WACC / Discount Rate	3.00%	3.00%	3.00%
Growth Rate	-17.19%	-16.19%	-15.19%
Fair Value	$0.26	$0.30	$0.34
Upside / Downside	-96.38%	-95.79%	-95.25%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	131.46	110.17	92.33	77.38	64.85	54.35	55.98
Payout Ratio	22.24%	35.79%	49.34%	62.89%	76.45%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	29.23	39.43	45.56	48.67	49.58	48.91	51.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	3.00%	3.00%	3.00%
Growth Rate	-17.19%	-16.19%	-15.19%
Year 1 PV (M)	37.83	38.28	38.74
Year 2 PV (M)	41.92	42.94	43.97
Year 3 PV (M)	42.96	44.54	46.15
Year 4 PV (M)	41.98	44.05	46.19
Year 5 PV (M)	39.74	42.19	44.77
PV of Terminal Value (M)	4,206.45	4,466.66	4,739.58
Equity Value (M)	4,410.89	4,678.66	4,959.41
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,651.53	1,651.53	1,651.53
Fair Value	$2.67	$2.83	$3.00
Upside / Downside	-63.01%	-60.76%	-58.41%

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Shenyang Machine Tool Co., Ltd. (000410.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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