DDM Analysis: 000061.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$19.75 - $39.23	$36.77
Multi-Stage	$6.20 - $6.78	$6.48
Blended Fair Value	$21.63
Current Price	$8.02
Upside	169.66%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	2.99%	15.26%	0.21	0.04	0.07	0.06	0.06	0.18	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.05
YoY Growth	-	-	417.36%	-42.86%	16.67%	0.00%	-66.41%	257.21%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.29%	0.67%	1.22%	0.97%	1.02%	2.47%	0.76%	0.69%	0.45%	0.38%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	334.74
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	240.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)	94.14

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	66.95	41.84	25.11
Cash Retained (M)	94.14	94.14	94.14
(-) Cash Required (M)	-66.95	-41.84	-25.11
(=) Excess Retained (M)	27.20	52.30	69.04
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,696.73	1,696.73	1,696.73
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.02	0.03	0.04
LTM Dividend per Share	0.14	0.14	0.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.02	0.03	0.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.16	0.17	0.18
WACC / Discount Rate	6.34%	6.34%	6.34%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$19.75	$36.77	$39.23
Upside / Downside	146.32%	358.47%	389.21%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	334.74	356.50	379.67	404.35	430.63	458.62	472.38
Payout Ratio	71.88%	75.50%	79.13%	82.75%	86.38%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	240.60	269.16	300.42	334.60	371.96	412.76	436.95

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.34%	6.34%	6.34%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	250.73	253.10	255.48
Year 2 PV (M)	260.68	265.65	270.66
Year 3 PV (M)	270.46	278.23	286.14
Year 4 PV (M)	280.07	290.84	301.92
Year 5 PV (M)	289.51	303.50	318.02
PV of Terminal Value (M)	9,168.22	9,611.05	10,070.83
Equity Value (M)	10,519.68	11,002.37	11,503.05
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,696.73	1,696.73	1,696.73
Fair Value	$6.20	$6.48	$6.78
Upside / Downside	-22.69%	-19.15%	-15.47%

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Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co., Ltd. (000061.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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