DDM Analysis: 000019.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$4.09 - $7.55	$5.51
Multi-Stage	$7.14 - $7.83	$7.48
Blended Fair Value	$6.50
Current Price	$6.53
Upside	-0.52%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	9.69%	0.00%	0.22	0.28	0.30	0.20	0.24	0.14	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	-20.51%	-5.10%	48.42%	-18.00%	73.00%	639.20%	-2.65%	2,634.13%	419.43%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.49%	4.20%	3.81%	2.35%	3.33%	1.80%	0.22%	0.16%	0.01%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	324.27
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	201.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)	122.87

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	64.85	40.53	24.32
Cash Retained (M)	122.87	122.87	122.87
(-) Cash Required (M)	-64.85	-40.53	-24.32
(=) Excess Retained (M)	58.02	82.34	98.55
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,152.85	1,152.85	1,152.85
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.05	0.07	0.09
LTM Dividend per Share	0.17	0.17	0.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.05	0.07	0.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.23	0.25	0.26
WACC / Discount Rate	6.31%	6.31%	6.31%
Growth Rate	0.77%	1.77%	2.77%
Fair Value	$4.09	$5.51	$7.55
Upside / Downside	-37.35%	-15.56%	15.60%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	324.27	330.01	335.84	341.77	347.81	353.96	364.58
Payout Ratio	62.11%	67.69%	73.27%	78.84%	84.42%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	201.40	223.37	246.05	269.47	293.63	318.57	337.24

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.31%	6.31%	6.31%
Growth Rate	0.77%	1.77%	2.77%
Year 1 PV (M)	208.05	210.11	212.18
Year 2 PV (M)	213.45	217.71	222.01
Year 3 PV (M)	217.73	224.28	230.95
Year 4 PV (M)	220.98	229.88	239.05
Year 5 PV (M)	223.30	234.60	246.36
PV of Terminal Value (M)	7,142.29	7,503.78	7,879.77
Equity Value (M)	8,225.80	8,620.38	9,030.33
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,152.85	1,152.85	1,152.85
Fair Value	$7.14	$7.48	$7.83
Upside / Downside	9.27%	14.51%	19.95%

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Shenzhen Cereals Holdings Co., Ltd. (000019.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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