Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Topindo Solusi Komunika Tbk. (TOSK.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - ApplicationSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$13.24 - $19.40$16.20
Multi-Stage$23.10 - $25.40$24.23
Blended Fair Value$20.22
Current Price$50.00
Upside-59.57%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.003.710.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)7,583.57
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,043.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)5,540.36
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,516.71947.95568.77
Cash Retained (M)5,540.365,540.365,540.36
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,516.71-947.95-568.77
(=) Excess Retained (M)4,023.654,592.424,971.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,375.194,375.194,375.19
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.921.051.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.470.470.47
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.921.051.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.391.521.60
WACC / Discount Rate8.27%8.27%8.27%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$13.24$16.20$19.40
Upside / Downside-73.53%-67.59%-61.21%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)7,583.577,507.737,432.657,358.337,284.747,211.907,428.25
Payout Ratio26.94%39.55%52.17%64.78%77.39%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,043.202,969.613,877.284,766.505,637.556,490.716,871.13

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.27%8.27%8.27%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)2,715.182,742.892,770.59
Year 2 PV (M)3,241.353,307.843,375.00
Year 3 PV (M)3,643.333,756.013,870.98
Year 4 PV (M)3,939.944,103.234,271.55
Year 5 PV (M)4,147.544,363.514,588.39
PV of Terminal Value (M)83,380.4087,722.2292,243.04
Equity Value (M)101,067.75105,995.69111,119.55
Shares Outstanding (M)4,375.194,375.194,375.19
Fair Value$23.10$24.23$25.40
Upside / Downside-53.80%-51.55%-49.20%

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