DDM Analysis: STX

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$42.29 - $58.13	$50.29
Multi-Stage	$71.47 - $78.51	$74.92
Blended Fair Value	$62.61
Current Price	$252.79
Upside	-75.23%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	-2.27%	-1.01%	2.74	2.67	2.65	2.78	2.96	3.07	3.25	3.31	2.56	3.32
YoY Growth	-	-	2.56%	0.52%	-4.59%	-6.01%	-3.57%	-5.61%	-1.79%	29.41%	-22.83%	9.49%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.93%	2.45%	4.03%	5.23%	3.51%	6.30%	6.84%	6.99%	7.71%	8.60%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	1,713.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	606.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	1,107.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	342.60	214.13	128.48
Cash Retained (M)	1,107.00	1,107.00	1,107.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-342.60	-214.13	-128.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)	764.40	892.88	978.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	219.25	219.25	219.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share	3.49	4.07	4.46
LTM Dividend per Share	2.76	2.76	2.76
(+) Excess Retained per Share	3.49	4.07	4.46
(=) Adjusted Dividend	6.25	6.84	7.23
WACC / Discount Rate	9.88%	9.88%	9.88%
Growth Rate	-4.27%	-3.27%	-2.27%
Fair Value	$42.29	$50.29	$58.13
Upside / Downside	-83.27%	-80.11%	-77.00%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	1,713.00	1,656.98	1,602.80	1,550.38	1,499.68	1,450.64	1,494.16
Payout Ratio	35.38%	46.30%	57.23%	68.15%	79.08%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	606.00	767.20	917.22	1,056.60	1,185.88	1,305.58	1,382.10

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.88%	9.88%	9.88%
Growth Rate	-4.27%	-3.27%	-2.27%
Year 1 PV (M)	691.01	698.22	705.44
Year 2 PV (M)	744.07	759.70	775.49
Year 3 PV (M)	772.01	796.46	821.42
Year 4 PV (M)	780.42	813.54	847.71
Year 5 PV (M)	773.86	815.13	858.14
PV of Terminal Value (M)	11,908.71	12,543.83	13,205.77
Equity Value (M)	15,670.07	16,426.88	17,213.97
Shares Outstanding (M)	219.25	219.25	219.25
Fair Value	$71.47	$74.92	$78.51
Upside / Downside	-71.73%	-70.36%	-68.94%

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ATLO	Ames National Corporation	3.84%	$0.87	48.60%
FRME	First Merchants Corporation	3.83%	$1.44	35.39%
PCAR	PACCAR Inc	3.83%	$4.27	83.66%
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FE	FirstEnergy Corp.	3.82%	$1.73	75.49%
LXFR	Luxfer Holdings PLC	3.81%	$0.52	98.38%
LCII	LCI Industries	3.80%	$4.72	64.48%
NEN	New England Realty Associates Limited Partnership	3.78%	$2.44	73.23%
PAYX	Paychex, Inc.	3.78%	$4.10	91.97%
RGCO	RGC Resources, Inc.	3.78%	$0.81	63.02%
UBSI	United Bankshares, Inc.	3.78%	$1.45	48.05%
SLVM	Sylvamo Corporation	3.77%	$1.80	41.11%
CAC	Camden National Corporation	3.75%	$1.61	47.99%
ARCH	Arch Resources, Inc.	3.74%	$5.04	50.87%
USB	U.S. Bancorp	3.74%	$2.02	43.68%
WSR	Whitestone REIT	3.74%	$0.52	60.32%
FDBC	Fidelity D & D Bancorp, Inc.	3.73%	$1.61	35.71%
WNC	Wabash National Corporation	3.73%	$0.33	5.38%
VLY	Valley National Bancorp	3.72%	$0.43	47.26%
GHLD	Guild Holdings Company	3.71%	$0.74	36.91%
FNF	Fidelity National Financial, Inc.	3.69%	$2.00	46.79%
IPAR	Inter Parfums, Inc.	3.68%	$3.15	61.47%
WSBF	Waterstone Financial, Inc.	3.68%	$0.61	45.57%
AROW	Arrow Financial Corporation	3.66%	$1.15	54.67%
ASIX	AdvanSix Inc.	3.66%	$0.63	32.72%
ASRV	AmeriServ Financial, Inc.	3.66%	$0.12	78.81%
CVGW	Calavo Growers, Inc.	3.66%	$0.80	71.92%
OXY	Occidental Petroleum Corporation	3.65%	$1.55	75.62%
FMAO	Farmers & Merchants Bancorp, Inc.	3.64%	$0.89	37.59%
LNKB	LINKBANCORP, Inc.	3.64%	$0.30	29.21%
BHRB	Burke & Herbert Bank & Trust Company	3.63%	$2.24	31.71%
EOG	EOG Resources, Inc.	3.63%	$3.90	38.34%
FITB	Fifth Third Bancorp	3.61%	$1.72	47.89%
LNC	Lincoln National Corporation	3.61%	$1.63	14.98%
MCBS	MetroCity Bankshares, Inc.	3.61%	$0.95	36.60%
OZK	Bank OZK	3.61%	$1.70	26.69%
PCB	PCB Bancorp	3.61%	$0.78	31.72%
SFD	SMITHFIELD FOODS INC	3.60%	$0.80	36.46%
0HOB.L	H&R Block, Inc.	3.59%	$1.54	33.12%
ASB	Associated Banc-Corp	3.59%	$0.92	87.56%
PLOW	Douglas Dynamics, Inc.	3.59%	$1.18	66.47%
EXC	Exelon Corporation	3.58%	$1.57	56.50%
MC	Moelis & Company	3.58%	$2.55	85.89%
TIPT	Tiptree Inc.	3.57%	$0.64	49.10%
BPRN	Princeton Bancorp, Inc.	3.56%	$1.20	46.56%
EVRG	Evergy, Inc.	3.56%	$2.60	71.71%
CZFS	Citizens Financial Services, Inc.	3.55%	$1.97	27.82%
CNO-PA	CNO Financial Group, Inc. 5.125	3.54%	$0.67	22.53%
NBTB	NBT Bancorp Inc.	3.54%	$1.47	46.30%
0JQQ.L	Archer-Daniels-Midland Company	3.53%	$2.03	82.76%

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Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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