DDM Analysis: SMKL.JK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$43.63 - $65.59	$54.02
Multi-Stage	$85.74 - $94.35	$89.96
Blended Fair Value	$71.99
Current Price	$159.00
Upside	-54.73%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	0.00%	0.00%	2.00	12.00	12.00	7.96	4.97	0.00	0.00	0.00	7.31	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	-83.33%	0.00%	50.80%	60.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	-100.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.34%	6.19%	4.05%	1.92%	2.51%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	17,675.19
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	5,500.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	12,175.19

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	3,535.04	2,209.40	1,325.64
Cash Retained (M)	12,175.19	12,175.19	12,175.19
(-) Cash Required (M)	-3,535.04	-2,209.40	-1,325.64
(=) Excess Retained (M)	8,640.16	9,965.79	10,849.55
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	3,418.09	3,418.09	3,418.09
(=) Excess Retained per Share	2.53	2.92	3.17
LTM Dividend per Share	1.61	1.61	1.61
(+) Excess Retained per Share	2.53	2.92	3.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend	4.14	4.52	4.78
WACC / Discount Rate	7.29%	7.29%	7.29%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$43.63	$54.02	$65.59
Upside / Downside	-72.56%	-66.03%	-58.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	17,675.19	17,498.44	17,323.46	17,150.22	16,978.72	16,808.93	17,313.20
Payout Ratio	31.12%	42.89%	54.67%	66.45%	78.22%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	5,500.00	7,505.72	9,470.77	11,395.78	13,281.33	15,128.04	16,014.71

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.29%	7.29%	7.29%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	6,924.88	6,995.55	7,066.21
Year 2 PV (M)	8,061.68	8,227.05	8,394.09
Year 3 PV (M)	8,949.61	9,226.39	9,508.81
Year 4 PV (M)	9,623.26	10,022.10	10,433.21
Year 5 PV (M)	10,113.07	10,639.69	11,188.01
PV of Terminal Value (M)	249,387.18	262,373.35	275,894.95
Equity Value (M)	293,059.69	307,484.11	322,485.27
Shares Outstanding (M)	3,418.09	3,418.09	3,418.09
Fair Value	$85.74	$89.96	$94.35
Upside / Downside	-46.08%	-43.42%	-40.66%

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PT Satyamitra Kemas Lestari Tbk (SMKL.JK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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